Maine ICE shooting puts Republican Senator Susan Collins in political bind

Written by: Nolan D. McCaskill

PORTLAND, Maine, July 16 (Reuters) – Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins received a political gift after the withdrawal of rival Graham Platner threw the Maine Democratic Party into chaos.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement later fatally shot a man at a traffic stop in the seaside town of Biddeford.

The incident triggered anger among Mainers and a crisis for Collins, who forged a lasting rapport with voters there in part by emphasizing her independence from President Donald Trump’s policies.

Following the deadly attack, Collins called on Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin to “stop all non-emergency ICE traffic stops.” Mullin initially agreed to do so, but Trump took to Truth Social the next morning to call on ICE not to give up “one of our most important and effective Crime Fighting tools: TRAFFIC STOPPING.”

“When we do this, we play directly into the hands of the criminal,” he wrote. “Radical Left Democrats want this done, but it won’t happen on my watch.”

A spokesman for Collins did not respond to a request for comment.

TRUMP VISITED COLLINS

The incident tied Collins to one of her party’s least popular positions in her home state and raised the question of how much influence she has in the Republican Party after nearly 30 years in office. Collins reiterated his position Wednesday, telling reporters on Capitol ‌Hill that the stops “must remain paused” until the investigation is complete.

But the damage had already been done. Political experts in Maine said the president’s mandate did not help Collins, who is vulnerable as the only Republican senator up for re-election this year in the state won by Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024.

“This undermines the ability of someone in his position to say, ‘I can influence and protect my voters,'” said Ron Schmidt, a political science professor at the University of Southern Maine.

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber, and flipping Maine is critical to Democrats’ path to winning control of the Senate in the midterm elections.

But until Monday, all momentum was on the Republicans’ side. Platner’s campaign collapsed last week following allegations of sexual assault, which he denied. Platner, a progressive outsider and oysterman who defeated an incumbent governor to become the Democratic nominee, withdrew Friday, leaving the Maine Democratic Party with about two weeks to choose a new candidate from 13 candidates.

Several open candidates running for governor or the U.S. House of Representatives ran in the June 9 primary, including Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Nirav Shah, former congressional aide Jordan Wood and social worker Paige Loud.

FROM PLATNER SPILL TO ICE CRUELTY

Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine, said immigration has undoubtedly shifted the focus in the Maine Senate race.

“These were all consequences of Platner and Platner. None of this was good for the Democrats,” Brewer said. “Collins, I think, was wise to keep his head down and let that be the story, and then suddenly ICE became the story.”

Experts said Democrats could still unseat Collins, who has proven her adeptness at winning re-election and would have a big financial advantage over the Democratic nominee. His campaign raised more than $4 million between April and June and entered July with an $11 million war chest, according to a filing Wednesday.

Collins has held her seat since 1997 and was re-elected by nearly nine percentage points in 2020, as Democrat Joe Biden carried the state by nearly the same margin.

“There’s little question in my mind that this is still a competitive race,” said Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington.

Trump’s staunchest supporters see Collins as not supportive enough of the president, Melcher said, while Democrats see her as willing to oppose her party only when Republicans don’t need her vote to advance their own agenda.

Jenna Valente, a social justice advocate and former volunteer photographer for Platner’s campaign, said she was heartbroken by what happened to Platner and his movement.

“This seat is absolutely winnable for Democrats, despite this huge hole we find ourselves in,” he said. “I think once we determine who the next nominee is going to be, everyone is going to throw themselves completely behind them and not lose sight of the fact that I think this is the most important election of our lifetime.”

(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; Additional reporting by David Morgan and Aleksandra Michalska; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Lincoln Feast.)