Me, worry? For US small businesses, Trump’s tariffs are now a non-issue | US small business

In two weeks I’m talking to a group of companies in the packaging industry about the issues that have affected their business this year. I’ll discuss economics, dealing with higher costs, taking advantage of new tax laws, artificial intelligence, and what companies are doing to find and retain workers in an unstable job market.

You know what I won’t talk about? Tariffs.

This was not the case a year ago. At that time, this was the hot topic that everyone wanted to know about. How will tariffs affect my business? Should I increase prices? Will my company suffer losses? Are the tariffs legal? When will they end? Many of these questions were answered last year.

Donald Trump’s tariff increases hit some businesses, especially those heavily dependent on buying supplies from China and India, but most appeared to have weathered the storm. In fact, many of my clients – and among my audience – took the “tariff” news as an opportunity (shh!) raising prices beyond the cost of tariffs to make a few extra dollars in profit. Others have awaited due process and are waiting in line for the refunds they will eventually receive, thanks to the Supreme Court overturning the president’s illegal use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Now tariffs are on the agenda again. Facing the July expiration of Trump’s temporary 10% global tariffs, the administration last week announced plans to consider new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% ​​on 60 countries, including trading partners from the UK and EU to China, India and Australia, for alleged trade in goods using forced labor, a strategy permitted under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act.

Seems like something I should mention in my presentation to the packaging association, right? Not exactly. Not unless I want to put everyone to sleep. This is because tariffs are boring for most businesses at this point. They are no longer a problem.

Owners in my target audience are mostly profitable this year, thanks to our resilient consumer economy and continued economic growth. Many continue to be hired. Their customers have been conditioned to expect price increases if necessary, but this may not even be necessary as some businesses take advantage of new tax breaks and efficiency gains that can be achieved through technology and artificial intelligence.

They also found that there was a limit to the royal decrees of the so-called “king” in the White House. He was subjected to many blows in the courts; foreign aid funding, birthright citizenship, deployment of the national guard, renaming the Kennedy Center. And he was forced to comply with both the judiciary and the legislature, which restricted many of his imperial plans. Ask any business owner about these new tariffs and they will probably tell you they expect them to be challenged, sued, and canceled.

The king’s latest tariff escapade has him assessing tariffs illegally, and due to a rebuke from the high court, the palace is forced to comply with the de facto law – which it does, by the way – and the tariff refunds go back to businesses (albeit with some hitches).

Businesses now view tariffs as a short-term problem. That’s because, to the relief of many, the Trump era is nearly half over. Any new tariffs could easily be canceled by the next administration, even after overcoming inevitable difficulties. Do J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio feel as strongly about tariffs as their bosses? It’s hard to say. One thing is for sure, there is not a single Democrat challenger, declared or otherwise, who supports them. So the long-term outlook for Trump’s tariffs doesn’t look good.

Still, the president will say his tariffs have been successful. he will do to say “Trillions” of new investments have been made in the USA by foreign companies that want to avoid these taxes, new jobs and opportunities for Americans. It will draw attention to the data supporting the increase manufacturing activity and said it was because of their tariffs. He will argue that the data center boom and the AI ​​economy don’t actually exist and that all GDP and stock market gains come from tariffs and other parts of economic policy.

His political opponents will say otherwise. They will say they challenged the king and won. They will tell their voters that no one is above the law and that a president’s policies cannot go unchecked. Once they regain power, they will promise to reverse the tariff (and other) damage he has inflicted and make everything right again.

But businessmen do not care much about this. They didn’t care that Trump imposed a 50% tariff on the goods they purchased. They cared that American policy upset their trading partners enough to cause conflict in their relationships. They cared that the president’s actions went unchecked and unchallenged for a while.

All of this has changed. Despite the protests and rhetoric, it is clear that the country still does not have a king. We only have one president, and his every move is scrutinized and delayed by the courts and Congress. The new tariffs are only a fraction of what he actually wants and are not enough to significantly impact most businesses’ profitability, hiring and investment plans. They are no longer as big a concern as they once were. So when I talk to the packaging association, I won’t talk much about them.