Mets and Phillies have nearly $700M in combined payroll and are already in trouble of missing playoffs
Yes, we are just at the beginning of the 2026 Major League Baseball season. In Sunday’s games, most teams played just 17% of the 162-game schedule. But it’s getting late in a hurry for two teams expected to compete for the World Series this October.
The New York Mets have committed $370 million in payroll to players this year, including luxury tax penalties of over $100 million. The Philadelphia Phillies have committed $290 million to player payroll this year, plus luxury tax penalties. Keep in mind, these are the types of payrolls that sports media, small-market teams, and fans are using to pressure for walkouts and salary cap enforcement during the 2027 season.
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But by the end of April, both teams were nearly eliminated from the National League East, seriously jeopardizing their postseason hopes.
This past weekend was expected to be a turning point for the Mets and Phillies; Important stars were returning from injury. Instead things got worse. Much worse.
Bo Bichette of the New York Mets leaves the field after the top of the seventh inning against the Chicago Cubs on April 17, 2026 in Chicago. (Erin Hooley/AP)
Rockies sweep Mets in doubleheader, Phillies demolished in Atlanta
Juan Soto recently rejoined the Mets, returning from a calf injury and seemingly bringing some offensive punch to New York. Francisco Lindor went down with his own injury almost immediately, and the Mets’ offense somehow got worse.
On Sunday, the Mets played a doubleheader against the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field and lost 6-1 overall. This led to the Rockies sending a proposal to the Empire State Building in an attempt to troll the Mets.
The Rockies have a projected payroll of $122 million for 2026, $27 million of which belongs to Kris Bryant, whose career is effectively over.
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So far as a team, the Mets are hitting .226/.288/.337. Offensively, they were 21% worse than the league average, which led to them scoring 26 fewer points than the average offense would score. In 28 matches. As a team, they hit 20 home runs in total this year. Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez singled to 11. In fact, the entire roster was surpassed only by Alvarez and White Sox third baseman Munetaka Murakami.
Putting it all together, we see that the Mets could only score 92 runs; That’s the fewest home runs among any team in baseball. They have the second worst run differential at -29.
The team with the worst run differential? Philadelphia Phillies for nearly $300 million.
Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper stands on the field between innings at Citizens Bank Park on April 19, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Jess Stiles/Sipa USA)
The Phillies returned Zack Wheeler from injury this weekend in Atlanta, and although his start helped Philadelphia end a disastrous 10-game losing streak, they quickly returned to their old form in a 6-2 loss to Chris Sale on Sunday. Incredibly, the Phillies are 3-15 in their last 18 games. As a team, they have a 5.13 ERA and are hitting .219/.294/.362. Alec Bohm was arguably the worst everyday hitter in the sport, with an OPS of just .412. Again, a team with a payroll of approximately $300 million and players such as Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, JT Realmuto, Christopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo.
They are currently 9-19, just like the Mets, with a -50 point spread and a 10.5 game deficit in the NL East.
This is where many fans would say “it’s still early” and yes, it is. But even if you don’t win anything in April or May, you may actually lose. Just a few weeks ago, both teams’ playoff odds were in excess of 85%. However, as of Monday, rates were seen dropping to the low 30s.
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So far this season, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are trending toward playoff odds. (Fangraphs)
With a payroll of nearly $700 million, hundreds more in luxury taxes, star powers like Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Francisco Lindor and Kyle Schwarber, and both teams likely to stay home while the small-market Pirates, Reds or Diamondbacks play through October.
New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor watches during an at-bat against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. on August 19, 2025. (Amber Searls/Imagn Images)
The poor performance of some of both teams is due to bad luck; For example, the Phillies’ batting average on balls in play is just .256, and their expected pitching stats are better than their ERA. But falling 10.5 games behind the Braves has already ended the division race. Atlanta currently has an 84% chance of winning the East, while the Mets and Phillies’ chances have dropped to around 7%. Therefore, “buying” a championship is not as easy as many fans think. A few weeks of poor performance, injuries or bad luck can change the course of the entire season. And that’s exactly what’s happening here.
