Myanmar’s military regime seeks legitimacy, not democracy
Singapore: The Myanmar military released the country’s most popular politician, Aung San Suu Kyi, from prison to house arrest; This marks the most significant shift in the regime’s strategy towards the opposition since it dropped tanks on the democratically elected government in the 2021 coup.
This could also be the beginning of a process that will lead to his full release.
What to make of this? The starting point is to note that during more than five years of brutal repression, civil war and economic vandalism, military dictator coup leader Min Aung Hlaing, who now calls himself president after this year’s sham elections, has shown no liberalizing tendencies.
It seems unlikely that the leopard will change its spots. But what he desires is credibility and the associated relief of sanctions, access to finance and normalization of international relations.
Myanmar’s economy, which grew by more than 6 percent in the year before the coup, is now fully cooked. Regime mistakes and clashes with pro-democracy forces and ethnic rebel groups triggered a prolonged recession in the Middle East, worsened by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
As Min Aung Hlaing knows, a simple way to capitalize on international goodwill without giving up too much ground to rivals is to manage Nobel laureate Suu Kyi.
The military has done this before.
In 2010, Min Aung Hlaing was chief of staff when then-leader Thein Sein released him from an earlier period of house arrest; This was a much more significant move than what was announced this week. This earned the regime a retreat and even the first visit by a US secretary of state in more than 50 years from Hillary Clinton.
“President Thein Sein has taken the first steps toward the long-awaited inauguration,” Clinton said at a news conference, referring to the release of Suu Kyi and the partial easing of restrictions on civil society. Hope has emerged again for resource-rich Myanmar. foreign investment rose.
Suu Kyi, who was released, won the 2015 election, the only fair vote the military has recognized since the first post-independence coup in 1962.
When the National League for Democracy defeated the military proxy once again in 2020, it was too much for the generals to bear, sanctions be damned.
His teeth were on democracy’s throat from the very beginning.
Suu Kyi, daughter of the assassinated independence hero Aung San, was imprisoned. So are his colleagues and supporters. He remained there, his health and whereabouts unknown. He was last seen in a semi-public appearance in May 2021, at the start of the proceedings against him. He is now 80 years old.
State media published a photo purporting to show him “talking to the relevant authorities during the amnesty process” to prove he had been placed under house arrest. His lawyers told Reuters he was staying in the capital Naypyidaw and on Sunday they were allowed to meet him for the first time in years.
Suu Kyi’s release from prison did not come out of nowhere. Former president Win Myint (Suu Kyi had the official title of “state counselor”) was pardoned and released last month. Shortly afterwards, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow met with Min Aung Hlaing and It signals “good things” for him..
Sihasak added that Thailand wants to bring Myanmar back into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional bloc that has excluded the generals’ participation since the coup. His trip to Myanmar and his comments suggest that at least some democracies are ready to support the post-election regime.
Late last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also traveled to Myanmar as part of a regional tour. China wants a flexible and stable government in Myanmar. Myanmar not only shares a common border, but also holds China’s only viable direct access to the Indian Ocean.
Myanmar’s brutal prison network holds thousands of political prisoners and most opposition is banned. The military continues to wage war against those who challenge it, killing civilians along the way.
While the apparent change in Suu Kyi’s status is welcome, the reality is that she remains in custody.
The government’s English-language spokesman, Myanmar’s Global New LightHe explained that he was kept away from “humanitarian concerns as well as the benevolence and good will of the state.”
The “state” has shown time and time again that it does not attach much importance to charity. However, he cares about good PR.
Get notes directly from abroad reporters about things that make headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What’s on in the World Newsletter.
Zach Hope is a Southeast Asia correspondent. He is a former reporter for the Brisbane Times.Connect via email.
