Net migration to UK fell to lowest point since Covid – but half of Britons still think it’s rising

Half of Britons think net migration to the UK is increasing, although it has fallen to its lowest level since the Covid outbreak.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that in the 12 months to June 2025, the number of people entering a country minus the number of people leaving each year is an estimated 204,000; That’s down 69 percent from 649,000 the previous year and the lowest annual figure since 2021. The dramatic decline was caused by a huge drop in the number of people coming to the UK for work or study.

But new research conducted for think tank British Future reveals the disconnect between public perception of the number of people coming to the country and reality. In a weighted survey of nearly 3,000 adults, 49 percent of respondents believe net migration is increasing by May 2025.

Only 16 percent of people correctly identified that immigration has fallen, and 51 percent of those surveyed said they thought immigration would rise again next year.

The announcement comes ahead of the release of updated statistics on Thursday morning, which are expected to show net migration falling further, prompting calls from some Labor MPs to scrap Shabana Mahmood’s radical immigration reforms.

Labor MPs hope to use the updated figures to pressure the Home Office to reverse some of the new settlement rules that will make it harder for foreign nationals to stay in the UK.

Net migration figures published by the ONS on Thursday morning are expected to fall below 200,000 and could fall further by the end of 2026.

The research for British Future also found that people overestimate the proportion of UK immigration consisting of people seeking asylum and underestimate immigration for work and education purposes.

According to the House of Commons briefing on asylum statistics, the survey found that while Britons estimated that asylum seekers made up 33 per cent of immigration, the real figure was around nine per cent.

Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: “A huge perception gap is shaping not only the immigration debate but British politics more broadly. Politicians need to take responsibility for this.”

“It’s hardly surprising that voters think net immigration will rise, when all we’re talking about is how to reduce immigration. We also need to talk about how to deal with the pressures and benefits of immigration into Britain.”

Net migration rose rapidly in the wake of the pandemic, to 681,000 by June 2022, then to 924,000 by June 2023. It then dropped to 649,000 in June 2024, then again to 204,000 in 2025.

The surge in migration after the pandemic has been driven by a combination of the lifting of post-Covid travel restrictions, new humanitarian resettlement programs for Ukrainians and Hong Kongers, and the introduction of new immigration rules following the UK’s departure from the EU.

The subsequent decline was driven by a decline in the number of people coming from outside the European Union to study or work and an increase in the number of people moving out of the country. The number of people coming to the UK through resettlement schemes has also decreased.

The decline in the number of people coming from outside the EU to study or work was a result of decisions taken under the Conservatives and continued under Labor to prevent care workers and overseas students from bringing family members to the UK and to raise wage requirements for some visas.

Dr. from Oxford University Migration Observatory. Ben Brindle said: Independent: “If you look at what’s happening now, net migration is down and the public isn’t really aware of it. But if you look at it in a slightly broader context, you’ll see that net migration is high. Maybe we can be a little charitable to the public because we’re not on the technical side of migration.”

Speaking about whether net migration will remain low or not, Dr. Brindle added: “A wider [downward] The trend happened because the Conservatives introduced restrictions that Labor continued. “Immigration levels have fallen and immigration levels have increased.” He explained that low numbers could rise as immigration levels and people leaving the UK slow.

Bobby Duffy, director of the policy institute at Kings College London, which jointly published the research, said: “We know that misunderstandings, particularly on highly controversial issues such as immigration, are often a reflection of an emotional response rather than a calm assessment of the facts.

“The public is partly signaling that they are still concerned about immigration, but that doesn’t mean the facts don’t matter.

“There is currently little talk about how much immigration has decreased and instead the public sees politics and media focusing on the risks and how this needs tighter control.”

A Home Office spokesman said: “Net migration has already fallen by 70 per cent under this government, but there is still progress to be made.

“This government has a proud history of welcoming those who contribute to this country, but we must restore order and control at our borders.

“The home secretary has unveiled plans for a skills-based immigration system that rewards contribution and integration and ends Britain’s dependence on cheap overseas workers.”