Nigel Farage hoped for a political boost – but his by-election stunt could result in career-ending humiliation
IIt may be more than a coincidence that one of Kemi Badenoch’s advisers – an Australian strategist called Timothy Smith – worked for Sir David Davis when he called a surprise by-election in 2008.
The Conservative MP launched a poll in the Haltemprice and Howden constituencies to protest then-Prime Minister Tony Blair’s plan to introduce the possibility of detaining terrorism suspects for 42 days without charge.
Sir David was forced to resign from the Tory front row, where he was shadow home secretary, as by-elections were called. But debate over what he saw as a gross violation of civil liberties failed to ignite when no one seriously opposed him.
In fact, he became a lone candidate against a group of people, like the Monster Crazy Party candidate. The political demonstration quickly fizzled out.
Now Ms Badenoch has joined Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party in deciding not to run against Nigel Farage in the “mock by-election” in her home constituency of Clacton; although the main parties’ chances of winning lie with the Conservatives.
This means the Clacton vote will be a contest between Mr Farage and Count Binface and several other candidates. And it means Mr Farage’s hopes of getting a mandate that will vindicate him on questions about his personal finances and political friendships will be dashed – just as Sir David’s hopes of creating a controversy in 2008 also failed.
However, if a new by-election is held, we may revisit this entire issue soon. This could happen if Mr Farage is found guilty of impropriety as part of the conclusion of the parliamentary standards inquiry.
Either way, what is now emerging is far more dangerous for Mr Farage.
Count Binface’s candidacy has gained cult status on social media, and scores of people are already asking how they can donate to his campaign, even offering to knock on doors for him.
Regardless of the Count’s policies on properly managing corners in football, ending parliamentary food subsidies or drafting people who play loud music on public transport, he is becoming the anti-Farage candidate.
All of this is happening in an atmosphere where massive tactical voting campaigns see people trying to stop the Reformation.
Tactical voting worked against reform in the Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton and Makerfield by-elections.
William Hill now ranks Count Binface as the 9/2 second favorite behind Mr Farage, who, rather ironically, hopes the by-election will pit him against the establishment.
It’s hard for a man wearing a trash can mask to brand the “establishment.”
Of course, it is extremely unlikely that the Count will win, but bad things happen. In 2002, Hartlepool Football Club’s Hangus the Monkey mascot won the mayoral election as a protest vote.
Stuart Drummond, the man in the mascot costume, would eventually serve three consecutive terms as the town’s elected mayor.
The problem for Mr Farage is that Count Binface doesn’t need to win to humiliate him. Even a vote of 10 per cent or more would be hugely embarrassing for the Reform UK leader.
But defeat would be career-ending, even for a man like Mr Farage, who has made more political comebacks than Lazarus.
Other candidates are likely, including actor Laurence Fox, who leads the right-wing protest party Reclaim, as well as the Rejoin EU Party and the Monster Raving Looney Party.
But if these parties are also persuaded to withdraw and Mr Farage becomes the sole candidate, an election will still need to be held to fill the gap, at a cost to taxpayers of £250,000.
That being the case, the leader of Reformation UK is trying to ensure that he is not consigned to the dustbin of history in one of the silliest contests of recent times.
