Can Andy Burnham actually beat Reform in Makerfield to take on Starmer? Here’s what the data shows

Andy Burnham has been allowed to stand in the Makerfield by-election, paving the way for him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labor leadership.

Mr Burnham had the approval of Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to stand, having previously blocked him from running in Friday’s by-elections in Gorton and Denton in February. The decision comes after Josh Simons announced he would be leaving parliament so he could run for the seat of mayor of Manchester.

He is awaiting confirmation as Labour’s official candidate for the contest, and reports widely suggest he will be successful in doing so. But there is a hurdle in Mr Burnham’s path to winning the WestminsterL by-election against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Wigan’s Makerfield, long seen as a safe Labor seat, has been held by the party since its formation in 1983.

But Mr Simons won the seat by just 5,399 votes against Reform UK in the 2024 general election. Since then, Labor’s polls have collapsed while Reform’s polls have been on the rise.

This month’s local elections saw Mr Farage’s party win all council areas in the Makerfield constituency, receiving around half the vote. Labour, with just over a quarter of the vote, was left behind.

Former health secretary Wes Streeting has backed Mr Burnham as Labour’s “best chance” of winning the by-election, despite the former health secretary’s allies insisting he would also enter any leadership race.

A recent estimate by Survation would support this assessment; The polling group found that Labor had a 67 per cent chance of winning the seat when it ran for mayor of Greater Manchester, compared to a 0 per cent chance.

Mr Burnham was recorded as Britain’s most popular politician by polling firm YouGov, with 35 per cent of people having a positive view of him. By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity is at 19 per cent, while Mr Streeting’s is at just 12.

Public support for Mr Burnham is thought to be even more pronounced in the north-west, with many locals approving of his record as mayor since 2017.

Speaking about the veteran’s chances, pollster Sir John Curtice said: Independent: “You have a personality that can attract attention, make local politics seem more dependent on voters, and provide strategic direction.

“His performance in the mayoral election goes beyond what you would expect,” he added, “You would expect a Labor candidate to win, but you wouldn’t expect him to perform as well as he is doing now.”

Another hurdle that could hit Mr Burnham’s chances is rising support for the Green Party, which had the second highest vote share in the last local election and won a historic victory in Gorton and Denton earlier this year.

Zack Polanski said his party was already searching for a candidate in Makerfield, dampening hopes Burnham might step aside to ensure the progressive vote was not split in favor of Reform.

The Greens won in Gorton and Denton with 41 per cent of the vote, Reform on 29 per cent and Labor on 25 per cent. But a poll by Survation after the incident showed Mr Burham would have received 47 per cent of the vote if he had been the Labor candidate, compared to 25 per cent for the Greens.

Sir John said Labor would have “less than a 5 per cent chance” in the Makerfield by-election “if it had been someone other than Andy Burnham”. He added that it was one of the tightest Labor Reform contests and a “much tougher” election to win than Gorton and Denton.

Figures show overwhelming support for Mr Burnham in the region. But one factor that could work against him is Makerfield voters’ feeling that he is using the seat as a springboard to reach the top job. This is a difficult variable to predict, but a clearer picture will undoubtedly emerge in the months leading up to the competition.

Speaking to BBC Manchester on Friday, Mr Simons admitted the contest would be “a really tough challenge” and added he did not know what the outcome would be.

He said: “Sometimes in history when people take risks and say, ‘I think this is the right fight, but I don’t know if we can win,’ that’s what changes the story. That’s what changes the course of things.”

The election could also be expensive, especially given that a victory for Mr Burnham would trigger another by-election for the mayor of Greater Manchester.

A by-election in Makerfield alone could cost the taxpayer up to £226,000; this is the maximum amount that the district’s returning officer can claim from the Treasury to cover the costs of conducting the survey.

But while the mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester will cost millions, the 2024 mayoral race will cost taxpayers £4.7 million.

Sir John thinks: “There will certainly be many unhappy Labor voters in Makerfield. Whether or not he takes action to tell them: ‘At the end of the day you are truly a true Red Labor Party; we are the party that represents your values.’

“I expect he will talk a lot about Labour’s values ​​and rediscovering the soul of the party, and the implicit message will be: ‘If you want to have a real Labor Party then you need to send me to Westminster.’

“But I think he’ll have to do it without openly criticizing Starmer. So it’s going to be a very difficult balancing act.”

“He will be the first candidate to try to win the by-election because he wants to replace the leader of the party he represents.”