Local elections 2026: What are the polls saying for Labour, Reform and the Greens?

Voters in England will head to the polls on May 7 to see more than 5,000 council seats up for grabs, with pollsters predicting a disastrous outcome for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labor Party.

With the Prime Minister facing a sweep of local elections in just over a week, some experts predict the party could see its worst-ever result.

Both Reform and the Greens are predicted to be big winners at the event, as opinion polls show growing discontent for Labor and the Conservatives.

Here are the predictions from pollsters at the University of Exeter Electoral Centre:

In last year’s local elections Labor won two-thirds of its seats in England, one of the party’s worst results in history. Voting was in the mid-20s at the time and has since fallen to 19, meaning an even more disastrous outcome could occur this year.

More than half (2,557) of the 5,000 seats contested in England this year are defended by Labor, and a vote loss of between 50 and 74 percent is expected.

This was the scenario put forward by polling expert Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford. Its latest forecast predicts Labor will lose 1,900 councilors at the next election, marking a new low for the party.

Other pollsters put Labour’s losses closer to the more conservative figure of 1,500, which would still be a dire result for the government.

Meanwhile, Reform is expected to win more than 1,300 seats from a base of just 3 and more than double the current number of councilors to 2,342.

The Greens are predicted to do similarly well, as projections show they will win 555 points from a base of 141, while the Liberal Democrats could win 393.

Also similar to last year, the Conservatives look set to suffer another heavy defeat, facing the loss of 907 councilors out of a rank-and-file of 1,362, a drop of two-thirds.

The reform looks set to translate its huge gains at council level into overall control of various councils across the country. Sunderland is expected to move comfortably from Labor to Reform control, while Thurrock, Wakefield and Barnsley are predicted to follow a similar path.

Nigel Farage’s party is also expected to wrest several councils from Conservative control, including Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk.

Meanwhile, the Greens are expected to do well in London and are on track to form a minority of councilors in six boroughs of the capital, possibly even taking full control of Hackney. Zack Polanski’s party also has a good vote share in Hastings, where it does not currently have overall control, and appears to be aiming to take over the seat.

Both rapidly expanding parties could become the minority party in many of the contested councils after the election, or force Labor into a minority in areas where it currently has overall control.