State of Origin favouritism no sure sign of success for NSW Blues and Queensland Maroons
There was little focus on how awful Queensland were in the final assessment of Wednesday’s Origin decider.
With 50 missed tackles and a 70 percent completion rate, the Maroons set the standard for a bad club team (by comparison, the Dolphins missed 36 tackles and completed 69 percent of their sets on Saturday, losing 66-0).
In Nine’s commentary, Phil Gould said Queensland was “not addressing cronyism”.
I looked at Origin records to see if either province was involved in nepotism because I was under the impression that being the best tip to win an Origin match was one of the best indicators of failure.
This year, the favorites (measured by pre-match odds, a more reliable measure of opinion than expert tipsters) have lost all three Origin matches.
In the last 10 series, the pre-match favorites won 12 of 30 matches.
They lost 13 of 23 matches with New South Wales as favourites.
Queensland have been pre-match favorites on seven occasions and have won only twice. This is a pretty clear-cut situation, in keeping with Origin’s reverse logic: the underdogs are actually the favorites. Queensland, favored to win the first and third games, lost both.
Strangely, they were not favorites for the second leg and duly won. On Origin, the league’s Opposite Day, the team most people expect to lose is the team more likely to win.
From where? Tap on the shoulder, underdog, get to the point of proving it, bring the critics to the fore…. As Queensland has shown across the board, these are essential ingredients for success. Just like last Wednesday, the Blues occasionally get into the Claret mood.
Nawaqanitawase’s genius is on stage again
The Roosters put on a fine display for Daniel Tupou’s 300th NRL game on Saturday night; From the prime minister and Tongan princess to Bob Farrugia’s under-23 premiership in 1976, everyone was on hand to celebrate.
Painting the 100-foot lines with “300” was a nice touch.
When Tupou scored his first try and was cornered by Billy Smith’s fine pass, one of the NRL’s most popular players remembered to do the Jai Arrow celebration and show that it’s not all about him, even when it’s all about him.
Meanwhile, the first move was on the opposite flank and Mark Nawaqanitawase was showing his tricks. His duel with Josh Addo-Carr was great.
Nawaqanitawase’s first pass to find Rob Toia proved fortunate; I was sitting 10 feet away and finding Toia unmarked was a pure Hail Mary, Mark and John. But Toia’s clumsy second magical pass a few minutes later, which did not result in a try, was deliberate, uncannily skilful and a sign of genius. He is an actor.
Either way, it shows what a good deal the Roosters got by acquiring Nawaqanitawase as a replacement for Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii.
One is currently caught by Daly Cherry-Evans’ kicks, and the other is catching a cold. Both will return to the NRL.
Lessons should be learned from Luai’s situation
If the league truly wants to put fans first, the Jarome Luai-Wests Tigers departure should finally put an end to the nonsense of signing players two seasons in advance.
Luai spent an 18-month lame duck spell at his current club just as PNG Chiefs announced his signing for 2028, making two seasons worthless for the Tigers and their fans.
No contracts should be booked for 2028 while the 2026 season is ongoing. By moving on from Luai in 2027, the Tigers are highlighting a systemic flaw that their fans do not deserve to have imposed on them.
What to do about the sharks’ feeding frenzy?
Wow. Just wow. You always prefer the Sharks in a fight against a Dolphin, but 66-0?
Perfection strikes as often as lightning, and Cronulla may never be able to deliver another performance like this, but they can enjoy the excitement while it lasts.
As for the Dolphins, they may have lost four superb back lines, but no team has ever won a championship after suffering such a defeat in their season.
Fozball swings as bad habits return
Fozball RIP? Maybe, maybe not, but for now Manly have reverted to the habit of not being able to complete the 80-minute match, which was a feature of the Anthony Siebold era.
If the finals match starts after Origin, the Cowboys’ win at Brookvale shows the team’s direction in September and Tom Dearden will be back soon.
At the end of this challenging round, the top eight may be determined.
Malcolm Knox is a journalist, author and columnist for The Sydney Morning Herald.
