Surge in Ukrainian oil refinery attacks sparks Russian fuel shortages

In recent months, Ukraine significantly increased the number of attacks against Russian oil refineries, BBC Russian and BBC Russian, caused fuel famine and price increases in some parts of the country.

According to an analysis of Russian media reports and confirmed images, drone strikes to refinery rose in August and remained high in September.

The country’s 38 major refinery – crude oil has been converted into usable fuel, such as gasoline and diesel – has been shot since January and successful attacks are already 48% higher than 2024.

Ordinary Russians seem to feel the effect of strikes with confirmed videos showing long queues at gas stations. In a statement to a ruling Russian media, some garages suspended operations to “wait for the crisis” instead of working with loss.

Ukraine’s security service Sbu did not respond to the request for comments. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that damaging Russia’s oil industry is a main way to force Russia to the negotiation table.

“The most effective sanctions – the fastest employees – fires, terminals, oil warehouses in Russia’s oil refineries.” He said. “We have significantly restricted Russia’s oil industry and significantly restricts this war.”

Our analysis shows that the reported attacks reached a record level in August and that it was eight in September in September, targeted by Ukrainian drones. The increase arrived after a short stagnation overlapping with a diplomacy in a hurry, and at the time, President Donald Trump tried to make a cease -fire agreement between Kiev and Moscow.

Some strikes were started against facilities in the depths of Russia. In late September, Sbu successfully hit the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery in the Bashkortostan region.

Satellite images showed smoke fluctuations from the facility, which was more than 1,100km (683 miles) from the Ukrainian border after the attack.

Kiev also attacked some of Russia’s most lucrative facilities. A refinery near Volgograd was targeted six times this year – an attack in August forced the operations to stop operations for a month. The Great Ryazan Factory near Moscow – which can produce 340,000 barrels per day – has been shot five times since January.

Ukrainian strikes seem to be in pursuit of two targets – the great refinery required for civilian materials and those who are close to the border used to supply fought troops in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, a former Deputy Minister of Energy, Vladimir Milov, told BBC Verify.

Ukraine’s general personnel previously claimed that the refineries in Samara and Saratov were used as part of military logistics operations. Both regions have been shot by drone strikes in recent weeks, two of the three plants in the Samara region are offline.

Former British Army Officer and Risk Consultancy Sibylline CEO Justin Crump said BBC has long been aiming for Ukraine’s oil and gas industry for a long time. However, he said that the hurry of strikes, military and security services now settled as a “basic campaign” in the tactic.

“This campaign is clearly the focus of important investments and is directed by the intelligence assessment of what will harm Russia the most.” He said.

It is difficult to measure the extent to which strikes affect Russia’s Russia and diesel production, statistics on gasoline production in May 2024 are among the previous attacks on a previous refineries.

However, BBC Verify’s analysis reported that at least 10 oil refinery has been forced to suspend the operations since August, and the Reuters news agency was national production on certain days. decreased up to fifth.

There is some evidence that refinery strikes have an impact on civilian life in some parts of Russia. The videos approved by the BBC Verify show long queues in the gas stations in the Far East and on a highway between St Petersburg and Moscow, while the Kremlin -installed authorities introduced the gasoline ration in the occupied Crimea.

The owners of small and independent gas stations in Siberia should be closed to the Russian media due to ongoing problems with the fuel supply. A manager in Novosibirsk region compared the situation with hyperinflation experienced by Russia after Soviet.

“I think we haven’t experienced such a crisis since 1993-1994,” local outlet said to EMSAL TV. “Many gas station has suspended their operations. Perhaps it is better to expect a crisis than to make a loss.”

Russia traditionally sees price increases due to summer travel and oil refinery maintenance, while drone strikes are getting worse.

Retail gasoline prices increase, wholesale prices – the cost purchased by retailers from producers – increased by 40% since January and increased faster.

The strictly controlled domestic media implied that drone strikes were a key factor for deficiencies, and the daily business newspaper kommersant lack of “unplanned refinery closes”.

However, civilians in Western Russia, including Moscow and Krasnodar regions, seem to be largely affected. Some of the speakers with the BBC said they were unaware of the famine in other parts of the country.

Russian officials insisted on controlling the situation. Last month, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the government has taken active measures to ensure that the price level of energy and gasoline remains stable, “he said.

However, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced last week that a partial ban on gasoline exports was extended until the end of 2025. Opposition politician Milov said that it is relatively small to suspend exports and “will not save the domestic market”.

It is also unclear to what extent strikes affect the ability to use oil revenues to finance Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

The majority of Russia’s oil exports are in the form of unrefined crude oil, which is not affected by strikes. At the end of September, an analysis by Bloomberg showed that crude oil exports – even though it is less profitable than gasoline and diesel – reached a record level.

Mr. Crump observed that the impact of strikes can be strengthened if the sanctions aimed at “more precautions” and oil exports by the West can be strengthened, but the attacks weakened Moscow’s ability to fight war.

“This campaign alone will not bring Russia to its knees, but it certainly increases the pain of long -term conflict.”

Additional reports by Christine Jeavans.