What Former Leader Sheikh Hasina’s Death Sentence Means For Bangladesh

Dhaka : The death penalty this week for former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on charges of crimes against humanity is seen by her opponents as a chance for progress for a nation traumatized by the scale of the violent uprising that forced her from power into exile.

Hasina has been in India since August 5 last year, when her 15-year rule ended in violence that left hundreds dead and thousands injured. He rejected Monday’s decision, calling it “biased and politically motivated.”

The challenges for Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Muhammad Yunus, are immense; Hasina or her longtime rival are under pressure to hold a credible election in February after decades of rule.

Here’s what you need to know.

We have a tense election ahead of us

Bangladesh’s new leaders are determined to return the South Asian nation to democracy through upcoming elections that they are confident will not involve Hasina and her Awami League party. But emotions are still high.

“The interim government has completely suppressed the Awami League… So the level of polarization is high,” said analyst Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Canadian Asia Pacific Foundation.

The biggest concern, he said, is election-related violence.

“Awami League spoilers may try to disrupt the elections with unrest. With Bangladesh’s police force dealing with serious morale issues, concerns may arise about the state’s capacity to manage violence,” Kugelman said. Police in Bangladesh were at the forefront of a deadly crackdown in 2024, with some among them killed after protesters attacked police stations.

Hasina’s son warned that the party may try to block the election if the ban on its political activities is not lifted and that only an inclusive election can create stability in the country.

‘A long game’ for Hasina

Despite Bangladesh’s renewed call after Monday’s decision, it seems unlikely that India will extradite Hasina.

“Hasina will likely bide her time, continue to manage her party’s affairs from India, and play the long game in the hope of returning to politics if conditions change in the coming years,” Kugelman said. “Dynasty leaders and parties in the region may take blows, but they will never disappear.”

Analyst Sabir Mustafa, former head of BBC Bengal Service, said the Awami League’s morale could be seriously damaged without Hasina’s leadership, but the party must reform if it wants to move forward.

“Therefore, Hasina needs to initiate party reforms herself,” he said, adding that she needs to look to the future if she wants to eventually return to politics.

Mustafa said the trial was “seriously flawed” and that the death penalty was unfair for a case tried in absentia. Even so, he said it would be difficult to get his supporters and others out on the streets to protest anytime soon.

Mustafa said it would be difficult for the Awami League to make a comeback without party reforms and new leadership under Hasina’s guidance. “This is the kind of bullet they have to bite,” he said.

New leader under pressure

Human rights groups and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights had mixed reactions to the decision and the proceedings.

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International raised questions about the fairness of the trial, while the UN human rights body said the verdict was a “pivotal moment” for victims of last year’s crackdown that left hundreds dead, although it opposes the death penalty in all cases. In this case, the Yunus-led administration will need to convince the international community about the reliability of the trial process.

According to Kugelman, Yunus’ first priority and biggest problem is to provide a safe and peaceful environment for the election.

These are high-stakes polls: There are strong expectations that voting will be free and fair in Bangladesh’s first election in nearly 20 years. The January 2024 elections, which saw Hasina return to power for a fourth consecutive term, were boycotted by opposition parties and marked by violent protests and international scrutiny.

Mustafa said Younis had already failed the Nobel Peace Prize winner’s legacy by presiding over many abuses, including blatant mob justice, deaths in custody, blanket arrests and jailing of people without some specific and credible accusations, especially among Hasina supporters.

But he thinks the international community will continue to support the interim leader.

“The challenge between now and February is to ensure that things go smoothly and that elections are held peacefully and reliably in February,” Mustafa said.

He said given the Awami League’s ban on elections, Yunus should ensure that the elections are not rigged by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia or Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Islamist party.

“So he can revive his legacy as a Nobel Peace Prize winner.”