Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: Are Vitor Pereira’s side favourites to reach Europa League final?
Forest, who have not won a major trophy since 1990, are second in the Premier League behind Brighton with 15 goals scored in the last six matches.
Nine of those followed comprehensive wins over Burnley and the Black Cats in the last two games that would provide the platform for survival.
West Ham and Tottenham’s recent wins on Saturday ensured there is still work to be done in the competition and Pereira underlined that the Premier League is the priority, but there is an expectation they will overcome this slump.
Five points above third-placed Tottenham with four games remaining, that breathing space could allow Forest to lift the handbrake against Villa and confidence has increased since Pereira arrived in February.
The players never bought into former manager Sean Dyche’s philosophy and when the Portuguese replaced him he identified two key problems: a lack of confidence in their own abilities and a lack of identity on the pitch.
Pereira felt that the first task was to restore confidence in the majority group that finished seventh in the league last season and introduce a style that suits the team’s qualities.
The players responded well, embraced the changes and met the high standards in training, including the music played.
As he has done in previous clubs, Pereira plays music in the last session before the match and allows the players to make choices.
He uses it during warm-ups to relieve tension and increase energy, allowing players to enter the game with the right mindset.
Pereira loves his own music, mostly from the 1980s, and used to play it loudly to himself in his office at former club Wolves’ Compton training ground.
He kept Wolves top of the table last season, taking over when they were in the bottom three before leaving in November, and wants to control games and tempo through possession.
The Portuguese likes a compact team that can take advantage of the opposition. Forest have conceded eight goals in eight league games under his management and are the fifth-best defender in their last six games.
A clear picture of how the style has changed under Pereira shows that crosses from open play have fallen by 31%, deep crosses by 29%, but shots from through balls have increased by 31%.
Under Pereira, who will now take charge of his 50th European game, they are creating 30% more big chances and converting 75% more of them.
The style change also inspired Morgan Gibbs-White’s impressive form; The 26-year-old has boosted his chances of making England’s World Cup squad by scoring nine goals in 14 games since the former Porto and Fenerbahce coach took over in February.
The midfielder’s hopes could be boosted further if he can help Forest lift the Europa League next month, which has been a target since the start of the season.
Their form in Europe also underlines Forest’s best xG (27.8) in the tournament; He intervened in the opponent’s penalty area 414 times in 14 matches and 23 of his 88 shots found the target.
Serie A team Bologna, who were eliminated by Villa in the quarter-finals, beat Forest in each of these three categories, while striker Igor Jesus became the competition’s joint top scorer with seven goals.
