The Coalition split may cost Sussan Ley her job. But votes are leaking to Pauline Hanson, One Nation
Idea
Updated ,first published
Updated ,first published
“Have you seen Hastie’s page? It’s mental.”
The line moved quickly on Tuesday afternoon. First of all, in terms of text. Later as a cognition in the corridors of the Houses of Parliament. Then, face to face, over a glass of wine, we talked quietly, with the air of people who know something they don’t want to name.
Liberal MP and future leader Andrew Hastie’s social media clutter was no wonder. This was a wake-up call sparked by Labour’s decision to vote for hate crime and hate speech laws.
The reaction was immediate and unforgiving. Hastie’s Facebook and Instagram feeds were filled with thousands of accusations of treason, allegations that he had abandoned conservative voters, and explicit promises that he would shift their votes to One Nation. According to many critics, the content of the law did not matter much.
What mattered to them was that a Liberal seen as the last great hope followed his leader and sided with Labor on a bill that many in the opposition had branded for days as dangerous and unsalvageable.
The political fire gripping the coalition isn’t just about hate crime laws. It is out of the question for the nationals to leave the front row en masse. Or even about Sussan Ley’s authority, though she’s clearly under siege at the moment. This is about a Coalition that no longer agrees on who it is trying to represent and is increasingly afraid of the votes it is losing.
It was impossible to dismiss all of the online trolls as fringe voices shouting into the void. They were Coalition voters, or at least the voters MPs were most afraid of losing. This is the crowd that thinks the political center is dead, and for whom the parties have spent the last few months flirting, strengthening their power and tolerating, especially on the Internet. But now they are angry, mobilized, and deeply skeptical of compromise.
Hastie’s reaction was harsh and unrepentant. Politics “is like war,” Hastie replied. He said his critics were “emotionally uncontrolled.”
“Purity is for keyboard warriors and paid influencers,” he wrote, urging them to unfollow.
He publicly argued that supporting Labour’s bill was the least bad option and warned that rejecting the deal would produce a much worse outcome shaped by the Greens. In doing so, he asserted a rare form of leadership.
It was a spray that caused more than just irritation. It showed how cowardly the Coalition’s right wing had become, and how deeply the party’s leadership crisis was now being tackled online as well as in the party room.
His colleagues’ sympathy for Hastie was weak, especially given the view that he was actively engaging with listeners. But this week he did something few people do: he confronted them. Others followed the opposite path. Especially at Nationals, the instinct was to calm rather than challenge.
But Pauline Hanson loomed in every calculation.
His decision to resign due to concerns from the Nationals’ entire front line about hate laws was framed as a stance on freedom of expression and principles. This was also an act of political self-preservation. Faced with a restive base and growing One Nation support, the Nationals chose to validate the anger rather than risk confronting it. It was safer to come out than to announce the compromise.
There will be no shortage of crime within the coalition: as Ley supports laws he once rejected as incorrigible. I’m not too proud that it turned a disagreement into a complete rupture. Anthony Albanese for rushing through parliament a complex piece of legislation in the wake of the Bondi massacre and daring to splinter the opposition. Each bears responsibility.
Fear is beginning to cast a shadow over the strategy, with the Resolve Political Monitor poll placing One Nation at 18 per cent nationally (Newspoll has the party on 22 per cent, even ahead of the Coalition’s 21 per cent). When the conservative vote is fragmented, the two-party preferred numbers lose meaning. The last election ended in no-contests for 35 seats, Labor versus Coalition. In these numbers, this becomes the norm rather than the exception.
The risk is highest where One Nation is strongest: regional and outer suburban Australia. These are the Coalition’s remaining strongholds and the Nationals’ heartland. Queensland MPs think Hanson’s party is close to coming out on top in the primaries in some seats. When this happens, preference agreements collapse and Labor becomes the unlikely decider on Conservative survival.
That’s why Coalition MPs think the likes of Queensland Nationals Senator Matt Canavan have been so relentless in supporting the fight for free speech this week. But this was not a culture-war theatre. It was fear of elections.
Redbridge/Accent survey Australian Financial Review He made that point clear late last year. In this survey, One Nation support rises to 26 percent among male Generation X voters and 22 percent among Baby Boomer voters.
Translating into obvious political reality: if you’re male, over 50 and struggling to make ends meet, there’s a one in four chance you’ll vote for Pauline Hanson today. This constituency is at the heart of the National base and is increasingly important to Liberals beyond the capitals.
Hastie belatedly and imperfectly chose to defy the Labor legislation after voting for it. Some of her colleagues at the national competition preferred comfort.
The coalition divide isn’t actually about a single bill. This might cost Ley his job, but it’s not really about him either. Many Liberals and Nationals are paralyzed with fear; They are unsure whether they should lead their constituents, confront them, or simply follow them as they drift.
Rob Harris is national correspondent Sydney Morning Herald And Age Based in Canberra.
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Rob Harris is a national correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in Canberra. He is a former European correspondent.Connect via email.
