The new threat haunting Labor’s record electoral dominance
Labor faithful gathered in Adelaide to celebrate its 50th National Conference, a record number of federal seats and an election victory that gave Anthony Albanese political capital few prime ministers have.
But the air of confidence now brings with it a disturbing undercurrent.
For all the talk of Labour’s return to dominance, delegates know the next political fight may not be against the type of conservative coalition the party has spent more than a century defeating.
He may be up against a movement that rarely features in Labour’s traditional playbook: Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
The speeches were full of references to progress, nation-building and Labor’s claim to represent the optimistic, egalitarian instincts of the Australian character. But underneath the applause was an acknowledgment that the political landscape had changed.
Once dismissed as a marginal protest party, One Nation now matches Labor’s primary vote in federal and state elections and has become a force capable of reshaping competition for working-class and regional voters, some of the constituencies on which the ALP has historically relied.
Former treasurer Wayne Swan, who lost his Queensland seat of Lilley in 1996 (the year Hanson was elected to Oxley), offers one of the clearest warnings.
Swan, who will speak at an event on the rise of populist politics at the Chifley Research Center on Friday, argues that Labour’s biggest political challenge is no longer just to defeat the Coalition but to confront the wider tide of anger, distrust and grievance fueling populist movements across the Western world.
Swan says Labor must resist the temptation to retreat into cautious managerialism.
“This moment does not call for antiseptic centrism,” Swan says. “This doesn’t require lukewarm incrementalism.”
He warns against those who believe that the answer to the rise of the right is to occupy a supposedly safe middle ground, constantly changing positions in the hope of not offending anyone. It is impossible not to read this as a criticism of the current Prime Minister.
“Some now preach that the answer to right-wing populism is to retreat to what they like to call the radical centre, pruning and hedging in the hope of offending no one,” says Swan. “I say that the radical center thus defined is neither a radical nor a centre. It is a refuge.”
For Swan, this contest is about whether politics can still provide economic security for ordinary Australians at a time when many voters feel left behind.
“Time once again demands that we be determined,” he said. “They want us to be what our movement has always been best at, to defend the economic interests of working people and the middle class.”
Swan, who this week steps down as federal ALP leader after eight years, framed the contest among competing visions of society.
“When you peel back the layers of concealment and camouflage, our competitors’ core agenda is as attractive as asbestos,” says Swan. “Leave aside the culture war and the scapegoating of the neighbour, and a simple proposition remains: Give up democracy so that a few can plunder.”
South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas, faced with rogue One Nation in his state in March, issued a different warning. In a stirring speech, he warned that Labor had become so consumed by the challenge of populism that it had lost sight of why voters elected it.
He said the party must recognize that the “current uprising of anti-Labor forces” brings clear, omnipresent and undeniable risks to the party.
Malinauskas suggested that Labour’s response was not to drag its rivals into the politics of anger, but to present a rival vision of national confidence.
He said Australia was defined by collaboration, not complaint.
“Any action bordering on pessimism will ultimately lead nowhere,” he said.
Albanese used his conference speech to argue that One Nation was no longer an independent protest movement but part of a wider conservative alliance.
“Beyond the personality clashes, policy confusion, conspiracy theories and candidate chaos of One Nation, and regardless of who leads the Liberals to the next election, in every respect that matters the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation are already a coalition,” he said.
He accused the parties of embracing “attention-seeking culture wars imported from abroad” and sought to define Labor against the politics of anger.
“We choose progress over protest. We choose purpose over chaos. We choose unity over division. We choose results over anger.”
The challenge for Labor is that the appeal of One Nation extends beyond individual policies. This reflects a broader breakdown in the political order; It reflects a challenge to the institutions, experts and political leaders who are reshaping elections in the democratic world.
While Labor is celebrating its history with historic electoral strength, its next big test is unlikely to be whether it can beat a weakened Coalition. The question is whether he can convince Australians that his response to the complaints policy is more challenging than managing the problem.
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Rob Harris is a national correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in Canberra. He is a former European correspondent.Connect via email.
