The world holds its breath as Trump-Xi summit approaches
TOPSHOT – US President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrive for talks at Gimhae Air Base, located next to Gimhae International Airport in Busan, on October 30, 2025. Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will seek a ceasefire in their painful trade war on October 30; While the US president predicts a “great meeting”, Beijing is being more cautious. (Photo: ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Photo: ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)
Andrew Caballero-reynolds | Afp | Getty Images
SINGAPORE – When US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping meet in Beijing on Thursday, they and their teams will potentially sign conclusions on a wide range of issues.
The agenda covers trade, technology, rare earth export controls, Taiwan, the Iran war and artificial intelligence. China’s decision to suspend exports of a wide range of rare earth elements and related magnets, and semiconductor ban Supply chains from Nexperia China at the center of global automakers have led to political and economic consequences in Europe, Japan and South Korea.
“Almost everyone had a stake in the outcome of this meeting,” said Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
This also means that other world leaders and interested parties will likely be paying close attention, even if they are not in the room, when decisions are being made that could have far-reaching consequences for them.
Both sides are increasing pressure as the summit approaches, with Washington accusing Beijing of being a candidate. “industrial scale” campaigns To steal American AI technology and Chinese order companies Failure to comply with US sanctions In addition to speaking on Iranian oil, he hosted the Iranian foreign minister for a visit. The future course of the relationship – whether towards cooperation or conflict – will have huge consequences for the global economy.
“The whole world hopes that the two leaders will agree on at least a number of issues and find ways to prevent further escalation of tensions on the remaining issues,” Cornell University economics professor Eswar Prasad told CNBC. The outcome could have major implications for global trade, geopolitics and the “survival of the rules-based order.”
Prasad added that a contentious summit that deepens tensions could disrupt global trade and growth by prolonging economic and geopolitical volatility.
The meeting, originally scheduled for March, was postponed after Washington became embroiled in its war against Iran, which triggered the most severe energy shock in history. Trump signaled Xi’s intention to visit Washington later this year; This will be the Chinese leader’s first visit to Washington in 10 years.
The whole week may be full of events. High-level officials, including Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, will meet. South Korea to discuss economic and trade issues on WednesdayBefore the Beijing summit.
They may seek to underwrite recent increases, including U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude and Chinese refiners that buy Beijing oil. unprecedented countermeasures Don’t derail the ceasefire reached in South Korea last year, said Gabriel Wildau, managing director of political risk consultancy Teneo.
Some of the issues at stake for various countries and regions include:
Taiwan tensions
Both the US and China have said Taiwan will be high on the agenda.
Beijing has reportedly been pressuring the Trump administration to reduce its security commitments and review official US policy towards the island. China claims the democratically governed island as its territory (Taiwan denies that claim) and has long criticized US arms sales to Taipei.
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said any rhetorical softening by Trump, however vague, would be “the most destabilizing outcome” of the summit.
Glaser said concessions elsewhere in exchange for “an implicit or explicit bargain that Washington grants Beijing a sphere of influence over Taiwan” could embolden China to take more assertive steps to erode Taiwan’s autonomy.
China’s top diplomat Wang Yi defined Taiwan as follows in his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 30: “The biggest risk point” He called on Washington to “keep its promise and make the right choices to open new space for China-US cooperation” in bilateral relations.
“Both countries understand that it is not in either of our interests to see this happen.” anything destabilizing “It’s happening in that part of the world,” he said.
The delicate balance of Southeast Asia
Southeast Asian governments will closely watch any dramatic changes in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods relative to their own exports, said Stephen Olson, a senior visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“If tariffs on Chinese exports fall, the commercial logic of shifting production from China to countries like Vietnam will also fall,” he said.
The Strait of Hormuz is also an important problem for the region. Southeast Asian countries, heavily dependent on Gulf oil, are bearing the brunt of the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict. Singaporean officials have repeatedly warned of the economic damage. called for free passage Throat.
If Trump and Xi agree on a joint effort to reopen the strait, it could provide short-term relief to the energy crisis; But some analysts say such an outcome is a remote possibility.
Japan and the EU: potential losses
The success of the summit could actually mean failure for Brussels and Tokyo.
A possible energy deal in which Beijing agrees to buy more U.S. oil and gas could push global commodity prices higher, said Matt Gertken, chief strategist at BCA Research. He also added that any progress on trade, including China’s commitment to direct investment in the U.S. economy, could displace Japan and Europe’s market share.
Russia is waiting
The summit will also be followed closely in Moscow, where China’s support is becoming increasingly important. Last A Trump-Xi face-to-face meeting in October led Russian officials to move quickly to reaffirm Moscow’s alliance with Beijing.
“Russia would be concerned about an overall improvement in U.S.-China relations,” said Dennis Wilder, a former U.S. intelligence official and Georgetown University professor. Wilder said one outcome of the summit could be reduced Chinese support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Beijing next week, just days after Trump’s departure.
