Trump and Tehran’s series of mismanaged posts stall progress towards peace | US-Israel war on Iran
A series of mismanaged and premature media announcements by Donald Trump and Tehran led to the collapse of any progress towards a peace agreement between Iran and the United States.
The recent missteps ended with Iran saying it would completely block the movement of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz and not allow any of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles to be exported out of the country.
The chain of events started when Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X just after markets opened in the US on Friday.
“In accordance with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage of the Strait of Hormuz has been declared completely open for all commercial ships for the remaining period of the ceasefire.” [Lebanon ceasefire] “On the coordinated route previously announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
His announcement reduced the price of oil by $12 a barrel and was welcomed by Pakistan, which has been in Tehran for three days trying to find a way to meet Iran’s preconditions for holding talks with the United States.
Araghchi’s post was potentially poorly framed or incomplete and sparked a massive backlash; This was exacerbated by the drop in oil prices and the over-interpretation of the news by Trump, who thanked Iran for opening the strait and agreeing to export its uranium stockpile to the United States.
Some on Iranian social media even claimed that Araghchi’s post was designed to manipulate markets.
Iranian lawmaker Morteza Mahmoudi said that if it were not for wartime conditions, Araghchi should have been dismissed for his remarks about X, accusing him of repeatedly making “untimely” statements.
Within minutes, Tasnim, a news agency close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, declared that Araghchi’s post was false or incomplete. In the statement, it was stated that the post was “published without making necessary and sufficient explanations, created various uncertainties regarding the transition conditions, details and transition mechanisms, and led to a great deal of criticism.”
When the newspaper hit the streets on Saturday, hard-line media like Kayhan were still demanding that Araghchi step down from his post.
Even those sympathetic to Araghchi in Iran, such as politician Mahmoud Sadeghi, said the announcement should have been made officially and not through a post that was open to misinterpretation.
The renewed stalemate led Trump to threaten to restart the bombing next week after a ceasefire between the two sides expires on Wednesday. This also leads to another potentially dangerous conflict in the strait, where a direct naval conflict between the United States and Iran has so far been avoided.
Iran also insisted that, contrary to widespread rumors, it had told mediators in Islamabad on Monday that it was reluctant to restart talks with the United States because the United States’ demands were excessive.
Iran’s tough approach reflects the IRGC’s dominance in determining Iranian foreign policy, as well as the IRGC’s fears that Araghchi is making premature and unnecessary concessions to Washington.
The IRGC’s anger was further fueled by a series of optimistic posts by Trump on Truth Social; Mohammed Galibaf, speaker of the parliament and influential leader of the Iranian negotiating team, said that these contain many lies.
It was later emphasized that Araghchi meant that the strait was only open to ships using designated routes authorized by the Revolutionary Guard Navy and allowed after payment of the necessary tolls.
A State Department spokesman underlined this point in an official interview, adding that there had been no discussions with the United States about the future of Iran’s uranium stockpile.
In Galibaf’s post, seemingly attacking Trump, it was emphasized that whether the strait will be open or closed will be determined by the army, not social media posts.
Trump’s desperation to end the war has led him to seek to accelerate a process over which he cannot fully control and which requires Tehran’s agreement. Iran still believes that the strait is its winning card and that time is on its side, so Iran is in no rush to return to negotiations.
Pakistan, for its part, is trying to put together a series of confidence-building measures that began when Trump pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon. This was supposed to set off a chain of confidence-building events, including the opening of the strait and the possible release of the first tranche of frozen Iranian assets.
But Trump’s impatience has led him to assume and pronounce too much, including continuing to insist that the blockade of Iranian ports by the US Navy will continue.
With Tehran in a defiant mood, Trump’s reaffirmation of the blockade on Saturday morning became reason enough for Iran to announce an end to even the conditional passage of ships just 24 hours after the process began. Iran claimed that it had already used threats to repel Indian oil tankers.
Tehran also warns that the resumption of missile attacks against Israel is imminent due to violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon.
There is also the deeper problem that Iran believes it has a legal and moral right to permanently seize control of the strait.
Iranian lawyer Reza Nasri warned on Saturday: “Under international law, an international strait derives its special status as a ‘transit passage’ from its role as a neutral passage connecting two high seas or special economic zones used for peaceful international navigation.
“When one side of this strait becomes a permanent military platform for destroying the opposite coastal state, this waterway no longer functions as a ‘normal’ international strait but rather becomes an extension of enemy military territory.”
