Trump faces the humiliation of signing an Iran peace deal ‘awfully similar’ to the 2015 Obama nuclear agreement he once branded ‘one of the worst deals ever made,’ reporter Philip Nieto predicts
The ‘great irony’ of Trump’s war with Iran is that it is likely to result in a peace deal that would see the US sign nearly the same deal Obama struck with the regime in 2015 on uranium enrichment, says reporter Philip Nieto. he said on the Daily Mail’s Deep Dive podcast.
Speaking to foreign correspondent Chris Pleasance, Nieto said Iranian military hardliners have shown little interest in accepting the concessions Washington wants, leaving Trump with few good options as the political costs of the war mount ahead of the midterm elections.
On Tuesday, Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran for a fourth time, even though he had previously vowed not to do so. Despite the ceasefire, on Wednesday morning the Islamic Republic was seen seizing two cargo ships and destroying a third in the Strait of Hormuz.
Nieto identified a ‘split’ between the Iranian government, which is leading the peace talks, and the revanchist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which effectively controls the Strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes.
Reporter Philip Nieto predicted that the “great irony” of Trump’s war with Iran is that it will end with the US signing a peace deal almost similar to Obama’s 2015 deal
On Tuesday, Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran for the fourth time. Despite the ceasefire, on Wednesday morning Iran was seen seizing two ships and destroying the third in the Strait of Hormuz.
Nieto argued that accepting a deal on Iran’s terms in exchange for peace is more reasonable for Trump than restarting the war
This makes negotiating with the Islamic Republic extremely difficult, which could mean Trump ‘agrees’ to the same terms Obama agreed to with Iran a decade ago to avoid a protracted stalemate, the reporter said.
“There are some reports of early drafts of US concessions,” Nieto explained.
‘This paints the picture that Trump agreed to a 2015 Obama-style nuclear deal with Iran and that Iran should stop enriching uranium for a decade or so.
‘This is a deal very similar to the one Trump canceled during his first term. But this could be something the US and Iran sign up to so the President can end this war and avoid a protracted conflict.’
‘So we came all this way to go back to where we started?’ host Pleasance asked. “That’s the great irony of all this, yes,” Nieto replied.
Before canceling the deal in 2018, Trump described the nuclear deal Obama signed with Iran in 2015 as ‘one of the worst deals ever made’ and a ‘guaranteed path to a nuclear weapon for Iran’.
Under the Obama-era agreement, Iran agreed to reduce its uranium stockpile by 97 percent over a period of 10 to 15 years.
Nieto argued that accepting a deal on Iran’s terms in exchange for peace was more politically acceptable to Trump than restarting the war.
‘There will probably be less political consequences for him,’ the reporter said.
‘Trump could have turned it around and said: “Oh, we won! We blew up all the air defenses.”
‘He already stated weeks ago that he had won the war, so I think behind the scenes he could accept some of Iran’s demands and openly declare America’s victory.
Speaking to foreign correspondent Chris Pleasance, Nieto said the IRGC’s hardliners have little interest in accepting the concessions Washington wants
Elsewhere in the podcast, Nieto argued that the real beneficiaries of the Iran war are Russia and China
‘Restarting the war and potentially further destabilizing Iran, which could lead to them targeting the entire energy infrastructure in the Middle East, would have much greater consequences for it.
‘This isn’t something you can complete on Truth Social or just by claiming you’ve won. He thinks that it would not be in his interest for the war to continue for a long time.’
Elsewhere in the podcast, Nieto argued that the main beneficiaries of the Iran war are Russia and China.
The reporter said that Russia benefits from the easing of sanctions against its own oil, while China would be pleased if the USA portrays itself as an ‘unreliable ally’ to the Gulf countries.
‘Russia and China love this,’ he said.
‘If the United States cannot win this war in the eyes of the world, it will undermine America’s control in the Middle East.
‘If the United States can no longer guarantee the security of its Gulf allies against a power like Iran, then these states will ask: ‘Why are we giving you this money? ‘Why are we letting you take these bases if it puts us at risk for very little in return?’
To hear Nieto’s full analysis, search for Deep Dive: Not Strait Forward wherever you get your podcasts.
