Ukraine’s deep strikes impact Russia, altering war calculations
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — In a secret location in the Ukrainian countryside, columns attack on drones They gather at night and almost silently to attack deep into Russia.
Its goals are strategic: oil refineriesfuel depots and military logistics centers. Since the summer, Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign has increased dramatically; It damaged energy infrastructure across Russia and weakened Moscow’s air defenses.
Built from parts produced in a dispersed network of workshops, these drones now fly farther than at any point in the war.
Officers wearing bulletproof vests move quickly and precisely; the headlights glow red for concealment. Engines shudder like old motorcycles as exhaust fumes drift into the moonless night. Minutes later, drones take off one after another from a makeshift runway and head east. Strikes caused Gas shortage in RussiaIt even mandates rationing in some regions, underscoring a growing fragility in the country’s infrastructure.
Drones hammer refineries
Western analysts say attacks on energy infrastructure so far have had a serious, but not crippling, impact. Ukrainian drones have repeatedly struck 16 major Russian refineries, representing about 38% of the country’s nominal refining capacity, according to a recent review by the Carnegie Endowment, a US-based think tank.
But the real impact is suggested to be much more limited: most plants resumed operations within weeks, and Russia’s refinery output was buffered by idle capacity and existing fuel surpluses.
However, deep strikes gave Kiev the initiative at a crucial moment. United States and Europe increasing sanctions Concerns over Russia’s oil industry despite Kiev’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles from the US stopped. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s advanced long-range strike capability was causing problems real damage -Forcing the Kremlin to import fuel and restrict exports. “We believe they have lost up to 20% of their gasoline supply as a direct result of our strikes,” he told reporters at a briefing in Kiev.
At the secret launch site, the commander overseeing the operation (a broad-shouldered man identified by the call sign “Fidel” in accordance with Ukrainian military regulations) watches through night vision goggles as the drones climb into the star-filled sky.
“Drones are improving,” Fidel told the Associated Press. “Instead of flying 500 kilometers (310 miles), they now fly 1,000 kilometers… A successful operation depends on three factors: drones, people and planning. We want to deliver the best result. For us, this is a sacred mission.”
Ukraine is developing with modest weapons
The majority of the Ukrainian fleet is domestic. The workhorse of night attacks, the Liutyi is a waist-high ship with a sausage-shaped hull, a propeller at the rear, and a distinctive triangular tail.
It looks neither sleek nor intimidating (more like Home Depot than Lockheed Martin) but its ease of assembly means it can be kept secret and constantly modified: optimized for passing through heavily monitored front-line airspace.
A typical example of Ukraine low-key war production philosophyLiutyi, whose name means “fierce” in Ukrainian, has become a symbol of national pride and was recently featured on a local postage stamp.
The reach of these drones – with some models routinely hitting targets within a 1,000-kilometre radius of the border, with their range doubling in the past year – marks a shift in the geography of the conflict. Attacks a year ago damaged refineries in a much narrower area, mostly in the western Russian border regions. Costs also fell and expensive air defense systems were further tested; long-range drones are now produced in Ukraine for as little as $55,000.
Change in the geography of conflict
“We are seeing Ukraine getting better at handling the war inside Russia,” said Adriano Bosoni, director of analysis at RANE, a global risk analysis firm. “For most of the war, Russia operated under the assumption that its territory was safe. This is no longer the case.”
He argued that strategic logic is being eroded by logistics: By forcing Russia to redirect supplies and direct air defenses over a larger area, Kiev aims to weaken Moscow’s capacity to sustain large-scale operations.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency says repeated drone attacks have reduced Russia’s refining capacity by about 500,000 barrels per day. This has triggered domestic fuel shortages and restricted diesel and jet fuel exports, even though overall global oil production has remained stable and prices have remained stable.
Kiev’s home-grown strike capability allows independent drone launches, bypassing Western approval required for imported weapons long range weapons. This autonomy preceded tougher sanctions against Russia: Allies only escalated tensions after Ukraine spent months trying to hit Russian refineries.
In reality, every mission is an exercise in trade-offs. Assessing the human cost, Fidel said less than 30 percent of drones reach the target area, so meticulous planning is essential. “The war has fallen on our generation, let’s fight for our children so they can live in a free democratic country,” he said. “We are now gaining experience that every country in the world will use, and we are paying the price for it with our own lives and the lives of our friends.”
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Associated Press journalists Hanna Arhirova, Evgeniy Maloletka, Dmytro Zhyhinas and Alex Babenko in Ukraine contributed to this report.
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You can follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
