US blockade of Iran will be major military endeavor, experts say
by Phil Stewart
WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) – The U.S. naval blockade of Iran is a major, open-ended military initiative that could trigger a new retaliation from Tehran and put major strain on an already fragile ceasefire, experts say.
President Donald Trump said in a social media post after the peace talks in Islamabad this weekend failed to reach an agreement that the US Navy “will begin the process of BLOCKING all Ships attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz.”
The US military’s Central Command later said the blockade would apply only to ships going to or from Iran, including all Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM said it would go into effect at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT) in Washington on Monday.
Trump also said US forces would intercept ships paying tolls to Iran, even if those ships were currently in international waters. “No one who pays illegal tolls will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump said the ultimate goal would be to pressure Iran to end its policy of effectively closing the strait, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, to all except countries that provide safe passage through Tehran.
If Trump’s strategy is successful, it would remove Iran’s biggest point of influence in negotiations with the United States and could potentially lower oil prices by re-clearing the strait for global trade. But experts say the blockade is an act of war that requires the open-ended commitment of a significant number of warships.
“Trump wants a quick solution. The reality is that going it alone is difficult and probably unsustainable in the medium to long term,” said Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration who now works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
RETALIATION OF IRAN
The U.S. military has yet to provide basic details about the blockade, including how many U.S. warships will enforce the blockade, whether warplanes will be used and whether any Gulf allies will assist in the effort. Central Command declined to respond to requests for comment.
Experts say that with enough warships, the U.S. Navy could create a blockade that would prevent many commercial tankers from trying to seize Iranian oil.
So will the United States be prepared to board and seize, or even damage or sink, ships trying to break the blockade? What if they are transporting oil to a major power, China, or to US partners like India or South Korea?
So what would Iran do? Retired Admiral Gary Roughead, the former chief of US naval operations, warned that Iran could fire on ships in the Gulf or attack the infrastructure of Gulf countries hosting US forces.
“I truly believe that if we start doing this, there will be some sort of reaction from Iran,” Roughhead said.
Iran’s threats to shipping have caused global oil prices to rise by nearly 50% since the United States and Israel launched the war on February 28.
Trump said on Sunday that oil and gasoline prices could remain high in the US through November’s US midterm elections War is not liked anyway.
GAS PRICE PROBLEM
Frustrated by Iran’s refusal to end the war on its terms, Trump on Sunday also raised the possibility of a resumption of US strikes in Iran, citing missile factories as a possibility.
U.S. Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, questioned the strategy, stating that Iran could send speedboats to mine the strait or put bombs on tankers.
“How is this going to lower gas prices?” Warner asked on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
Thousands of US military strikes have severely weakened the Iranian military. But analysts say Tehran has emerged from the conflict as a vexing problem for Washington, with tougher leadership and a buried stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
“Any Iranian who fires at us or at peaceful ships will fly to hell,” Trump threatened on Sunday.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded by warning that military ships approaching the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire and that the ceasefire would be dealt with harshly and decisively, underlining the risk of a dangerous escalation.
Solving the crisis will require a long-term, international effort, Stroul said.
“In the long run, this will need to be resolved through diplomacy and international political will,” he said.
(Reporting by Phil Stewart; Editing by Sergio Non and Deepa Babington)
