US state tariff bill hits $200 billion

new analysis US Census data It shows that states across the US, where important midterm elections will be held this year, have paid more than $134 billion in tariffs in the period since President Donald Trump began imposing sweeping trade taxes from March 2025 until last November. In all, U.S. Census data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide showed a total of $199 billion in tariffs paid by states in that period.

Trump called affordability a “Democratic hoax” and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in his final testimony before Congress that tariffs “do not cause inflation.”

But Trump’s tariffs and affordability are expected to be factors in the upcoming midterm election cycle. Recent CNBC survey data from American consumer and pricing data shows affordability issues are real and many voters are negatively affected by the economy. January survey From the New York Times and the University of Siena It turned out that 54 percent of voters are against Trump’s tariffs.

“Americans struggling with affordability rightfully blame tariffs for higher prices on many everyday purchases,” said Dan Anthony, executive director of the We Pay the Tariffs small business coalition and president of Trade Partnership Worldwide. “The president could eliminate tens of billions of dollars in taxes in the states that will determine the 2026 elections. But he doesn’t want that,” Anthony said.

Anthony said his coalition is touting new data to counter the narrative that tariffs are “paid for by other companies” and “paid to Americans” and to “educate the public about how tariffs actually work and who pays for them: American small businesses, workers and consumers.”

Important states and tariff bills

• California: $38 billion
• Texas: $21 billion
• Michigan: $13 billion
• Georgia: $12 billion
• Illinois: $9.6 billion
• Ohio: $6.5 billion
• Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion
• North Carolina: $5 billion
• South Carolina: $5.2 billion
• Kentucky: 4 billion dollars

This year, all 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 seats in the U.S. Senate are up for election. Republicans hold slim majorities in both houses of Congress. Democrats need to win four seats to gain a majority in the Senate. The Republican Party cannot afford to lose more than two seats to maintain control of the House of Representatives.

The first season of midterm elections begins on March 3, when voters head to the polls in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas.

Small businesses across America hit hard by tariffs

Many small business owners across US states are speaking out about the impact of tariffs on their businesses, some as part of a new YouTube video-focused campaign. Small Businesses Against Tariffs The campaign launched on Wednesday to raise awareness.

Chris Gibbs, a corn, soybean, wheat, alfalfa hay and 90-head cow-calf operation farmer in Shelby County, Ohio, said the tariffs hit him twice as hard. “My operating costs are skyrocketing,” Gibbs said. “Tariffs on steel, aluminum and lumber have increased the cost of everything I do. From building buildings, barns, buying machinery, trailers, wheels and parts, and even buying my fertilizer,” he said.

Gibbs said the trade war has also affected his ability to sell his products.

“In 2018, this president destroyed trade relations, and at that moment we became an unreliable supplier, just like Carter was with the Russian embargo in 1980. That’s where we are, and we haven’t recovered,” Gibbs said. he said. “Brazil is now China’s leading supplier of soybeans. Trump pushed President Xi into Brazil’s arms, and they never left.”

Promised agricultural purchases were a big part of the first trade war between the US and China. China failed to fulfill its obligations in agricultural purchases. China has promised to increase orders in 2025, but trade data shows no significant increase.

Port of Long Beach CEO Noel Hacegaba told CNBC that soybean exports to China have seen a 95% year-over-year decline.

“China now consumes most of its soybeans from places like Brazil,” Hacegaba said. “The United States produces about 20 percent of the world’s soybeans. Brazil is now at 40 percent, largely because China is shifting its purchases to Brazil. We are doing everything we can as a major export destination to help our exporters move their products more efficiently, but we need certainty and clarity in trade policy to ensure that this product can move,” he said.

Gibbs said Trump’s promised tariff aid to farmers is a slap in the face of all farmers and Americans. “If these checks ever come in, that’s money I spent on tariffs, as well as all American consumers,” Gibbs said.

At Saline, Michigan-based Hiblow USA, which specializes in linear air pumps for wastewater treatment and septic aerators commonly used in residential wastewater treatment systems serving rural and suburban homes across the U.S., the company’s rate bill reached $1.2 million in 2025. Chairman Tim Smith said uncertainty about the lifespan of the tariffs forced him to halt expansion plans. The Southeast Michigan company has 10 employees and the additional location would create three to four new jobs. “We’re a small business, and while some may think it’s not a lot of work, these are good-paying jobs,” Smith said.

“We only passed on 40 percent of our costs to our customers,” Smith said. “It’s become a competitive battle between companies to see who can spend and consume more cash and absorb those tariffs. But I think no one can continue to hold and absorb tariffs over the long term,” he added.

The company imports its products from the Philippines. The country has not yet reached an agreement with the US on tariffs MondayIn Manila, a 19% tariff on Philippine goods was discussed by the countries’ representatives.

Changing tariff rates also place additional burdens on customs brokers, Smith said. “We had to renew our bonds two or three times because we needed to add more funds to the bonds,” Smith said. “This delayed us getting some of our containers because the bond was in limbo. You can’t process anything without bonding.”

Customs bonds, also known as surety bonds, provide importers with collateral that guarantees payment of taxes and duties imposed on imported goods. The value of these bonds and related warrants increased as taxes imposed by the Trump administration increased. If a bill does not have sufficient funds, the importer cannot take title to the freight.

Even if the Supreme Court rules that many of Trump’s tariffs are illegal and require refunds to businesses, with the decision set for Feb. 20, Smith says the Trump administration knows it has another round of tariffs pending, so there won’t be any cash flow relief.

“We have always gotten our money back through customs without any problems,” Smith said. “Sometimes it would take up to a year, but there’s certainly a framework for doing that. But I can tell you that we’re certainly not making a business plan based on a decision that we’ll be able to get our money back. There are more tariffs on the way if it’s determined to be illegal.”

Jennifer Bergman, a toy store owner in New York, closed West Side Kids, which her mother founded, after running it for 44 years, due to tariffs. “The majority of our toys are made in China, so the tariff costs have taken over our business,” Bergman said. “We were constantly receiving emails from our sellers about price increases and as a result, we had to increase our prices.”

One example was his scooter orders. Bergman said the business normally sells $50,000 in scooters each year. After the tariffs, they didn’t have a scooter under $200, which affected not only their sales but also their inventory. “Scooter prices increased by $30,” Bergman said. “I got a call from my scooter company and they told me they were diverting their containers to Canada because of the tariffs and wouldn’t bring them in until the tariffs came down,” he added.

Bergman said he started looking at the numbers at the end of May and realized he wouldn’t be able to pay July rent. “June was one of my busiest months overall… but June was absolutely killer. I couldn’t afford inventory to sell. I called my landlord and luckily my landlord and I had a 44-year relationship and I said I had to close.”

Bergman’s store closed at the end of July.

In Tempe, Arizona, Brick Road Coffee opened in 2021 during the pandemic. Gabe Hagen, co-founder and CEO of the coffee shop and roasting company, said he is grateful that tariffs on coffee have now been lifted, but he still has coffee at the higher tariff price.

“Primarily, we order 4,000 pounds of coffee a month for two stores and are facing increased costs due to tariffs on green coffee and other ingredients,” Hagen said. “Despite the high costs in the cafe, unfortunately we had to increase prices due to our roasting business.”

Before the tariffs, Hagen said wholesale customers paid about $10 per pound for roasted coffee beans. Now customers are paying about $13.50 per pound, and he’s hoping that’ll hit the top.

There have been significant and rapid changes in coffee tariffs. Initial 10 to 50 percent tariffs ranged from the high end in Brazil (50 percent) to the low tariffs in India (25 percent), Vietnam (20 percent) and Indonesia (19 percent).

A November 2025 executive order eliminated most of those tariffs, including those in Brazil, but Hagen said the tariffs created lasting effects. His company reduced tariff expenses by postponing store expansions and purchasing roasting equipment before the tariffs went into effect. “We were heading into an era where cash was going to be king, and as a small business, I didn’t have a lick of cash on hand,” Hagen said. “So I had to cut it to preserve and give me the longest runway possible to get around the uncertainty.”

Hagen says consumers are weakened by the company’s sales activities. “We’re seeing our average ticket go down,” he said. “While our foot traffic has remained relatively flat year over year, our gross is actually lower year over year. Consumers are tightening their wallets and not buying add-ons like brownies. Our Q4 was terrible. It was the worst in the four years we’ve been open,” he said.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, says: “Post-traumatic stress disorder from the previous spike in inflation has flared up again. And if it hasn’t been passed on entirely to consumers, businesses have absorbed it through lower profit margins. … Tariff distress is real, ask any business and/or consumer. Inflation is a major economic pain point, so I think this will definitely be a major issue.”