Warning issued as falling birth rate sees applications for primary school places in London decline

There has been a significant drop in primary school applications in London this year as the birth rate has fallen and families have moved out of the capital.

A total of 80,658 applications were submitted for primary school places, according to London Councils’ analysis published on National Primary Education Bidding Day.

This represents a decrease of 3.5 percent compared to the previous year.

The umbrella group for local authorities is predicting further reductions in reception places, estimating a drop equivalent to around 87 primary school classes over the next four years.

Jon Abbey, Chairman of the Pan-London Admissions Board, said: “Ongoing cost-of-living pressures facing London families, including falling birth rates and high housing costs, have contributed to a further decline in overall applications this year; we expect this trend to continue in the coming years.”

Despite the overall decline, six councils saw a slight increase in applications.

The majority of children in London will choose their first choice school (88.4%), up 0.5 percentage points from 2025.

Almost all (97%) were offered a place in one of the top three.

According to figures from the Pan-London Admissions Board, children were most favored in Barking and Dagenham (95.3%), followed by Hillingdon (94.6%).

They were least likely to receive first preference in the City of London (73.9%), but all children in the area who did not receive their first choice received their second choice (26.1%).

Primary school proposals will be emailed on Thursday.

London Councils found earlier this year that applications for secondary school placements had fallen by 1.6% compared to 2025.

The falling birth rate, which has particularly affected the capital, has already seen many municipalities planning to close or merge primary schools.

The number of children under 16 in England is expected to decrease by 6% over the next decade.

The Education Policy Institute last year found that nine of the 10 local authorities with the biggest declines in primary school pupils over the past five years were in London.

Antonia Jennings, chief executive of the Center for London, said the fall in primary school enrollment “should not be confused with reducing pressure on our schools”.

“Municipalities and school leaders have had to try to manage sharply unbalanced demand in the capital, where family needs change rapidly from year to year,” he added.

“Decreasing enrollment means less funding for schools. 90 schools have closed or merged in the last five years.

“London faces a £45 million reduction in school funding over the next four years, with a quarter of schools already running deficits. This means cuts to staff, specialist support and the curriculum.

“At the same time, the needs of London children are becoming more complex, with more students living in poverty, with limited access to food, in overcrowded homes or temporary accommodation.

“This increases pressure on schools as education is disrupted and teachers fill gaps left by strained public services.”