What Europe’s response to a no-deal with Trump could look like
US President Donald Trump offers statements at the “AI race” AI Summit at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium on the Washington DC on July 23, 2025.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images
Brussels is preparing for an unjust scenario, as a trade agreement between the European Union and the United States continues to take place and when it will take place.
On Thursday, the MPs signed a large counter-tarife package to target a wide range of goods, and discussions about distributing the EU’s so-called “Ticaret Bazuka” continues.
Measures can begin only a few days before August 1, then EU imports to the US with 30% tariffs and the EU is expected to respond immediately.
However, a potential agreement negotiations also warmed this week, sources said that the current basic scenario for an agreement contains a tariff of 15% for imports to the United States, and that possible exemptions are still being studied.
But most importantly, US President Donald Trump, known for last -minute heart changes and rapid decision making. Therefore, there is no guarantee of how a potential agreement can look.
Retaliation tariffs
This week, the European Commission has combined two proposed task packages on a list, which is a wide range of goods from food and beverage items to clothing and machines.
A source told CNBC that tariffs at the beginning of this week could be up to 30%and reflect what happened from the USA.
EU Member States reported On Thursday, he voted to approve the united list. Measures will come into force only days after the US’s date of August 1.
Global Macro President Carsten Brzeski in ING said to CNBC on Friday that he expects an EU retaliation at the level of tariff without an agreement.
“In the scenario that has no barrels without any other delay of US tariffs, I see that the EU is going for an approach for taste, so I see that it has applied 30% tariffs to the selected US goods, not yet all goods such as motorcycles, cars, clothes and alcohol.” He said.
“Considering that the EU is full, considering that the European countries are not fully compatible with how to react to how to react, but I try to find a balance without going beyond the US measures.”
‘Trade Bazuka’
Another widely discussed option is the EU’s so-called Anti-Coercion instrument called “Ticaret Bazuka”.
The measure is designed to be a deterrent with the European Commission. promise “It would be the most successful if there was no need to use it.” However, if a third country is forcing, “The vehicle allows the union to officially define and respond to examples of economic coercion.”
Bloc sees economic coercion as the intervention of non -EU countries in policies in the region by threatening or imposing measures affecting trade and investment.
While the European Commission notes that dialogue and participation will be a part of their response to such a coercion, for example, pain allows imports and export pavements and restrictions on accessing the EU’s market.
BRZESKİ’s BRZESKİ may implement export restrictions regardless of whether the EU, the EU, the anti -goat instrument.
Alberto Rizzi, a member of the European Council of Foreign Relations, told CNBC on Friday, although the Pain is accepted as a ‘nuclear option’, in fact, there is a place for flexibility in its practice as long as it is proportional to the damage to retaliation measures ”.
In spite of the mood in the EU, Rizzi argued that in a displayed scenario, despite making “fast and important” retaliation more conflict and supportive, it was unclear when the pain could be activated.
“Retaliation is seen as a means of negotiation by the EU, so painful, tariff packages will probably be activated in the second stage if there is no response by the US – the EU will want to keep it as a leverage instead of using it immediately.” He said.
– Silvia Amaro from CNBC contributed to this story.
