What happens now for Starmer? John Rentoul answers readers’ key questions after Burnham’s Makerfield win

A.ndy Burnham’s landslide victory in the Makerfield by-election changed the political landscape overnight.

The former Greater Manchester mayor cruised to victory by 9,231 votes against Reform UK, instantly intensifying speculation about the future of Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership and setting the stage for what could become the most significant Labor leadership race in a generation.

Burnham described the result as a “turning point” and said Labor had “one last chance for change”.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer congratulated his rival but stressed that he had no intention of standing aside and was ready to challenge for the leadership in any way.

In a recent Ask Me Anything session, readers pressed me on everything from whether Keir Starmer might face an internal challenge to how seriously Andy Burnham is being taken as a potential successor and what a possible reshaping of Labour’s senior team might look like.

Much of the debate has focused on a simple but unresolved question: is Labor heading for a controlled transition of power or increasingly chaotic internal strife? Although Starmer’s authority has been weakened, I have argued that the most likely outcome is still some form of managed succession rather than a full-blown leadership battle.

Here are some of your questions and my answers in the Q&A:

Question: You criticized Andy Burnham. Now Makerfield has won the by-election; What questions would you ask him about his next steps towards becoming prime minister?

Laertes

A.: I disagree with many of Burnham’s policies. He’s not a Blairite (anymore). The only question that really matters and that I would ask him is: “Who will you appoint as chancellor?”

If Ed Miliband is the answer, Labor had better close up shop now. If it’s Wes Streeting or Shabana Mahmood, this government might have a chance.

Question: Will this lead to a managed transition rather than a contentious leadership election?

Stein

A.: I think you are right that there will be no contested elections. Keir Starmer will not run, no matter what he says now to deter a challenge, because polling among party members shows he is almost certain to lose.

However, Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner will not be candidates either because polls show Burnham is far ahead. Streeting is brave enough to do it anyway because anything can happen, but I expect both he and Rayner to be bought off with big job offers in Burnham’s government.

Streeting is right to say that Burnham, like the country, would benefit from having her views tested in the heat of a leadership campaign. However, it should not be forgotten that the voters are Labor Party members and union taxpayers: any contest will bias candidates towards unrepresentative views.

Today I say thumbs up to Harriet Harman, who said only Labor MPs should elect the leader.

Question: What constitutional reforms could Andy Burnham propose and would they be realistic before or after a general election?

coloneloscopy

A.: I understand that Burnham wants to put a commitment to proportional representation in the next Labor manifesto and claims that this can be implemented without a referendum. I don’t agree with PR, but I’m also against making changes without a referendum: I think the fundamental issues of democracy should be put to the vote of the people.

In my view, the “progressive” voting bloc would be more united by a successful Labor government than by promises of such constitutional reform.

There are reports that Burnham wants to continue “abolishing” the House of Lords, possibly even before the next general election. I wish this were true, for I am in favor of abolishing the House of Lords as a legislature, but I fear that by abolishing it I mean replacing it with a second elected chamber. This means two houses of Parliament with competing democratic powers. Terrible idea.

Burnham also subscribes to the broader and more fashionable agenda of constitutional reform (citizens’ assemblies, a “written constitution”, lots) and even goes further in calling for the abolition of the parliamentary flogging system. This is one way to ensure that democracy does not work; It does this only because the whips organize the representatives into coherent blocs.

Question: If Burnham wins, who will be the Labor candidate in the Manchester mayoral by-election?

avid midlands reader

A.: Manchester City Council leader Bev Craig is expected to be the Labor candidate, Michael Crick reports. He would have a good chance of winning.

Question: Where do you think the Manchester mayoral by-election will go?

Anonymous

A.: Now that the government has changed the voting system so that second preferences are counted, Labor is more confident of defeating Reform.

A Labor win is hugely important for Burnham because her reputation as a Reform hammer would be damaged if Nigel Farage’s candidate wins Greater Manchester.

Question: Could Keir Starmer take on a foreign secretary role in Andy Burnham’s cabinet?

Anonymous

A.: There is a strong case for Keir Starmer’s appointment as foreign secretary in Burnham’s government; He knows many world leaders and could take huge pressure off No 10 by acting as a high-status international representative.

But I suspect relations between Starmer and Burnham are so poor that this won’t happen.

Question: How does Tony Blair view Andy Burnham and the current Labor leadership debate?

anonymous

A.: Blair put forward his views on Keir Starmer in a long article in a very frank manner. Given that Andy Burnham’s positions in some areas are even less Blairite than Starmer’s, it is unlikely that Blair will be more enthusiastic about him. But he described Burnham as “an outstanding member of my government” and then added “but…”

Question: Why does Andy Burnham now appear capable of racing against Makerfield when he was previously prevented from standing?

anonymous

A.: A significant change has been the shift in the balance of power within the Labor Party. There is also the political context of Greater Manchester; The changed electoral system for mayoral races makes it easier for Labor to defend against Reform in a multi-round system.

Question: Why couldn’t Andy Burnham stand in the 2024 general election?

anonymous

A.: The timing wasn’t simple. Burnham was recently re-elected mayor in May 2024, and the general election schedule was not fully anticipated.

Question: Who could plausibly take over senior cabinet roles in a reshuffle?

anonymous

A.: The key authority in any transition scenario is the chancellor. Shabana Mahmood and Wes Streeting are often discussed in this context. There are fewer candidates for other roles, and internal party governance will be an important factor in balancing factions.

These questions and answers were part of ‘a’Ask Me Anything‘ Hosted by John Rentoul. Some responses have been edited for clarity and length.

For more on UK politics, check out John’s weekly Commons Confidential newsletter. Independent exclusive email premium subscribers, taking you behind the Westminster curtain. If this sounds like something you’d be interested in, Go here to learn more.