Why are the Mets so bad? Offensive struggles and a disjointed clubhouse lead to worst record in MLB
2024 New York Mets He won 89 games and reached the postseason on the strength of a magical second half.
Pete Alonso scored one of the biggest home runs in the franchise’s recent history against the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card series, turning a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 lead in the ninth inning of the playoff game against top-dog Devin Williams. They then easily handled the terrible Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS to advance to the NLCS.
Despite losing to the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers, the Mets appeared to be heading in the right direction. What’s more, just a few months later they signed Juan Soto to the largest contract in Major League Baseball history.
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Fast forward to late April 2026 and the Mets are 90-95 since the start of the 2025 season. That’s not a small sample size, that’s an entire season and an extra month of play. They missed the playoffs last year by losing to the Cincinnati Reds in a tiebreaker. They started the 2026 season going 7-16 and losing 12 straight games. Ironically, there was another blowout in the ninth inning on Tuesday, when Devin Williams hit a blowout that resulted in a 5-3 loss to the Minnesota Twins.
This raises the question: Why are the Mets so bad? Big payrolls, star players, famous free agents. How did we get here? Turns out there’s a pretty easy explanation.
Bo Bichette of the New York Mets leaves the field after the top of the seventh inning against the Chicago Cubs on April 17, 2026 in Chicago. (Erin Hooley/AP)
Mets players underperform other teams in MLB by a larger margin
Soto missed time this year due to injury, but even with him in the lineup, the Mets’ other hitters are woefully behind where you’d reasonably expect them to be. And this is a flaw arising from the squad structure of the team.
When they missed out on Kyle Tucker, who would be a great fit on the Mets’ roster, the team’s front office looked open to anyone who would take their money. Enter Bo Bichette. Bichette has been a well-above-average player for most of his career and has an outstanding season in 2025. He also has some glaring red flags that could give some teams pause, namely his bat speed.
Stat data now gives us bat speed data on a player-by-player basis, and after already being in the not-so-good 23rd percentile in 2023, Bichette has dropped to the 12th and 14th percentile over the past two seasons. He was never a great baserunner or fielder, but his bat made up for it. But this year? He’s making lower quality contact than he has since his first two years in the league, he’s chasing pitches more, and his sprint speed is down 15 percent. Even though he’s only 28 years old, Bichette has already shown clear signs of decline.
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So is 35-year-old Marcus Semien. While he was a below-average hitter in 2025, he got worse in 2026. The same warning signs flash on his profile. The hit rate is the highest in recent years. His bat speed, never elite, dropped to the 8th percentile in 2025 and remained at the same level in 2026.
You may wonder how important bat speed is. A quick look at the Baseball Savant Statcast bat velocity leaderboard shows that it’s pretty significant.
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Little Caminero
- Oneil Cruz
- Cam Smith
- Jordan Walker
- Nick Kurtz
- Jo Adell
- Garrett Mitchell
- James Wood
- colson montgomery
- Jake Bauers
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Kyle Schwarber
- Willson Contreras
- Julio Rodríguez
Junior Caminero has become one of the most valuable hitters in baseball this year. Oneil Cruz is 44% better than the league average. Jordan Walker has been one of the stories of the first month of the season, hitting .292/.357/.607 with a batting line that is 68% better than the league average.
Faster bat speed doesn’t always mean better results, but it certainly helps. And two of the Mets’ top hitters have some of the slowest strikeout rates in baseball.
The good news for the Mets is that Soto and Francisco Lindor still project to be two of the best hitters in baseball. Bichette and Semien are also expected to improve on their season so far despite their flaws. Nolan McLean looked great as a starter, and Williams allowed an unsustainable .556 batting average on balls in play. There will be a positive regression. However, there are significant flaws in the team’s roster structure, and they are paying approximately $70 million for Bichette and Semien, both of whom have significant weaknesses in their skill sets. Oh, Semien is also signed until 2028.
Soto then told the media on Wednesday that he didn’t talk to his teammates during the losing streak, a sign that this might not be the closest clubhouse.
It’s not what you want to hear.
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New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto reacts after infielder Bo Bichette hits a home run on an RBI double in the first inning at Oracle Park in San Francisco, Calif., on April 2, 2026, against the San Francisco Giants. (Robert Edwards/Imagn Images)
It’s easy to say it’s too early. And yes, it’s still early. But the Mets’ chances of reaching the postseason reached 89% in March, according to FanGraphs. Now? That’s only 39% and a 3% chance of winning the World Series. Split rates dropped to just 12%. No team that lost 12 consecutive matches could qualify for the play-offs. All this for a team with a payroll of over $370 million. They won 83 games in 2025 and revamped most of the roster after the season. FanGraphs currently projects them to win 82 games in 2026. This is a sign that player evaluations are not good enough.
And that could lead to another year of us sitting at home watching other teams in October.
