Why seniors now outnumber young people in 54 neighbourhoods
The share of Sydney suburbs where there is more population aged over 65 than under 20 has tripled over the past two decades as the city’s population ages and high housing costs drive young families away from many neighbourhoods.
By 2024, the population aged over 65 will outnumber those aged up to 19 in 54 Sydney neighbourhoods, according to new analysis. Bureau of Statistics population data shows. This compares with just 18 neighborhoods in 2001.
Potts Point-Woolloomooloo in the city center had the highest population balance in favor of seniors, with 1889 more people over 65 than under 20. It was one of the few inner-city neighborhoods where older people outnumbered those up to age 19; others included Double Bay-Darling point (114 more people over 65), Darlinghurst (636 more) and Surry Hills (481 more).
The wealthy neighborhoods north of the port also had a large population balance in favor of the elderly; Neutral Bay-Kirribilli (1,127 people over 65, more than 0-19), North Sydney-Lavender Bay (508 more) and Avalon-Palm Beach (505 more).
Parts of the Central Coast also had a large share of older people, particularly Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga (1693 more over 65s than under 20s) and Erina-Green Point (1203 more).
Among the reasons for this high number are population aging. In the mid-1970s, approximately one in 12 Australians was over 65, but this proportion has now risen to one in six. It is estimated that the share of the population over the age of 65 across the country will reach one quarter by the 2060s.
KPMG city economist Terry Rawnsley, who analyzed the latest local area population figures, said: high housing cost It also played a role, particularly in Sydney’s well-located suburbs.
“It’s also about housing affordability,” he said. “Families with young children cannot even set foot on the doorstep of a property in many suburbs.”
Fewer births have also been a factor. Sydney’s fertility rate The expected number of births per woman has fallen by almost 20 percent in the last decade to 1.44, the lowest in history.
The age profile of some neighborhoods has changed rapidly over the last two decades.
For example, in the Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena region, the number of under-20s outnumbered over-65s by 1,179 in 2001. However, in 2024, this situation was reversed and the number of elderly people increased the number of people aged 0-19 to 863. There were 480 more people under 20 than over 65s in Mosman North in 2022; By 2024, the number of people over the age of 65 was 458 more than the number of people under the age of 20.
It was a different story in a suburban area that stretches to . northwest of sydney To the southwest, where the population over the age of 65 is much larger.
The under-20 population balance was highest in the north-west suburb of Schofields East (9848 more people under 20 than over 65s) and neighboring Marsden Park-Shanes Park (8343 more people). Next was Oran Park in the southwest of the city (7280 more).
These are relatively newly developed areas, to which many young families have moved in the last decade, and in part they have also increased the population of children and young people.
Rawnsley says the character of many suburbs will change as the share of older residents increases. School enrollment rates will decrease, parks will be used differently, child care centers will decrease, but the demand for elderly care will increase.
“Even local high streets will start to look different in some places as older people’s spending patterns differ from other age groups,” he said. “The atmosphere in some suburbs will change completely.”
Regions with older age profiles tend to have more women than men, reflecting women’s longer life expectancy.
Rawnsley’s analysis showed that in 2001, 5 per cent of Sydney neighborhoods had more people over 65 than those aged 0 to 19, but this had risen to 15 per cent by 2024.
The proportion of Sydney suburbs where older people outnumber under-20s increased gradually between 2001 and 2019, but has accelerated noticeably in the past five years. “This share has increased with the aging population,” Rawnsley said.
The analysis was based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data for so-called “Statistical Area Level 2” (SA2) settlements, which are similar to urban suburbs.
Matt Wade is senior economics writer at The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect with: X or email.
