Why WA Labor and the Liberals expect a tough fight for Paul Papalia’s former seat
Both WA Labor and the Liberals view the upcoming by-election in the south suburban electorate of Secret Harbor as “hard to win” following the sudden resignation of local member Paul Papalia.
Prime Minister Roger Cook announced that the speaker of the legislature would liaise with the electoral commissioner about possible dates for a poll in a seat that Labor won comfortably in the last state election in 2025.
The seat was created in 2023 following a redistribution of electoral boundaries and replaced the former seat of Warnbro; this seat was created solely in 2008 to replace Peel’s previous electorate.
Technically, Labor is the only party to hold both Warnbro and Secret Harbour; Papalia is the only local member elected to the seat, but the region has long been seen as a stronghold of the current government.
However, Cook believes it will be difficult to retain the seat in the by-election.
“Let’s be very clear. This is going to be difficult for Labor,” he said.
“This is going to be really tough. At a time when so many people are struggling with the cost of living, we’re saying goodbye to one of the longest-serving, most reliable and popular local members.”
WA Liberal leader Basil Zempilas said while a decision on a potential party candidate had not yet been made, he expected the party to challenge for the seat.
“I think there is constant speculation that there could and might be a by-election in this area,” he said.
“I know many local people in the area have worked hard to ensure they are in a position to run for primary if presented with the opportunity, but you can’t do much more than that.
“The process with the Liberal Party is always a democratic process. You have to nominate candidates. No one is guaranteed passage, and that applies here as well.”
Cook also recognized the growing rise of One Nation and foreshadowed that the party would become a fierce rival in Secret Harbor.
“When you vote for One Nation you bring the chaos of the eastern states to Western Australia,” he said.
“I understand that people have legitimate concerns about their situation right now, whether it’s about the cost of living, whether it’s about jobs, but One Nation is trying to exploit those legitimate concerns and create division, division, by blaming minorities.
“This is not a solution for WA. We know what we want in Western Australia. We want jobs, we want cost of living measures, we want health, we want housing investment and only WA Labor can deliver that.”
WA One Nation leader Rod Caddies previously said the seat was in his party’s sights.
“But we all know his attacks on One Nation are self-serving,” Caddies said of the Prime Minister after party leader Pauline Hanson’s whirlwind visit last month.
“He knows we’re the favorites at Kwinana, he knows we’re the favorites at Secret Harbor, and he knows we’re the biggest threat to his majority.”
Zempilas also acknowledged the One Nation threat as his party seeks victory in Secret Harbor, but added that most of the pressure was on the prime minister.
“We expect One Nation to play a significant role in this by-election and it doesn’t change anything for us,” Zempilas said.
“We expect to do our part, but we also know One Nation will be a factor.
“We know who’s most afraid of what’s going on in Western Australia right now, and that’s the WA Labor government.”
WA Nationals leader Shane Love said his party had not yet made a formal decision on whether to run for the seat, although he had previously indicated he would target more metropolitan seats.
“The decision as to which seats will be included in the national WA competition ultimately rests with our state council,” he said.
“What I will say is that West Australians want politicians who tell it like it is and put common sense first. That’s exactly what Nationals WA has done for over 110 years.”
The Greens also did not rule out taking the seat but were more concerned about who would replace Papalia as corrective services minister.
Greens leader Brad Pettit said the portfolio was in urgent need of renewal.
“I hope the cabinet reshuffle following Minister Papalia’s resignation can bring about much-needed change,” he said.
“The mismanagement of prison land in Western Australia under Minister Papalia has spiraled from crisis to crisis over the last few years.
“This mismanagement has led to poorer outcomes for both children and adults entering the justice system, higher crime rates, and made the prison environment less safe for both staff, other inmates and the community.
“Rather than focusing on increasing police powers as we have seen under the current minister, we need someone who focuses on reinvestment, rehabilitation and direction to take on the challenge of reforming our justice system.”
