Will Iran’s internet shutdown become permanent?

Iran is 10 days away from one of the most extreme internet blackouts in history, with 92 million citizens left without all internet services and even phone and text message services.

The Iranian government cut off services on January 8, apparently to suppress dissent and prevent international scrutiny of the government’s crackdown on protesters.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the internet was shut down in response to what he described as externally directed “terrorist operations”.

The government has not said when internet services will return, but new reports suggest that behind the scenes authorities may be making plans to permanently restrict internet services.

On January 15, IranWire news site reported that government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told journalists that international web access would not be possible until at least the Persian New Year in late March.

Internet freedom watchdogs at FilterWatch believe the government has hastily implemented new systems and rules to cut off Iran from the international internet.

“There should be no expectation that international internet access will be reopened, and even then, users’ access to the international internet will never return to the way it was before,” FilterWatch said, citing unnamed government sources. he said.

Although the BBC could not independently verify this report or the timing of its implementation, journalists who spoke to BBC Persian also said they had been told internet access would not be restored anytime soon.

Iran has had a tight grip on the internet for many years, blocking most Western social media apps and platforms as well as external news sites such as BBC News.

However, many people have managed to access popular apps like Instagram using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).

Internet freedom campaigners at Access Now say Iran has repeatedly used shutdowns as a way to mask mass violence and brutal crackdowns on protesters, as seen in nationwide internet blackouts during the November 2019 and September 2022 protests.

The closure decision was also made during the Iran-Israel conflict in June 2025.

However, the current outage lasted longer than previous outages.

The Access Now charity said in a press release that it was imperative to fully restore internet access.

“Restricting access to these essential services not only puts lives at risk, but also emboldens authorities to hide human rights violations and evade accountability,” he said.

There are already reports that livelihoods in Iran have been badly affected by the shutdown, and e-commerce has been particularly affected.

The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimates that as of January 18, more than 3,300 confirmed protester deaths have been recorded and more than 4,380 cases are under investigation. It is also stated that the number of people arrested in 187 provinces has reached 24 thousand 266.

The actual number of people killed and detained is believed to be much higher, but a lack of access means the figures cannot be independently verified.

Internet monitoring project FilterWatch says the latest shutdown means the beginning of a more extreme “digital isolation” and increased surveillance over what is said, sent and viewed online.

Amir Rashidi, director of cybersecurity and digital rights at Miaan Group, which runs FilterWatch, told the BBC he believed authorities were moving towards a tiered system where access to the global internet would no longer be automatic but subject to approval.

The official estimated that access would be provided through the registration and review process, adding that the technical infrastructure for such a system has existed for years.

According to FilterWatch, the plans are not being made public as key decisions are increasingly concentrated in security organs rather than civilian ministries.

Protecting Iran from cyber attacks, of which there have been many notable and devastating cases in recent years, may be another motivation for extreme moves.

However, analysts warn that plans may not be fully implemented or may be unevenly implemented due to internal power dynamics and broader economic and technical pressures.

Amir Rashidi notes that users’ ability to adapt or migrate to alternative platforms, as well as risks to internet providers, can further complicate implementation.

If Iran continues with the reported plans, it will follow similar systems in Russia and China.

China has led the world in control of the internet, not only with massive state censorship of online discussions, but also what people can access from abroad.

The Great Chinese Firewall blocks citizens from accessing most of the global internet, and all western apps like Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube are inaccessible without a VPN; However, their use is becoming increasingly difficult.

In 2019, Russia began testing a major plan to create a similar system called Ru-net.

But unlike China, which placed state control on the internet as it spread decades ago, Russia must adapt state control to complex systems.

Going one step further than China, Russia plans to shut itself off from the world wide web with a “kill switch” that is understood to be used in times of crisis.

The system will allow internal internet traffic and enable the country to move online, but without the traffic going outside or inside a digital border. But it hasn’t been fully tested yet.

If the reports are true, it appears that Iran is planning to permanently merge Chinese and Russian internet control.

Computer security expert Prof. from the University of Surrey in England. After reviewing reports of Iran’s plans, Alan Woodward said, “There seems to be a movement in Iran to isolate everyone from any electronic access unless approved by the government.”

He believes that the Iranian regime is likely moving ahead with its long-term plans, using the current power outage as a reason to issue technical changes and orders while everything else is down.

Amir Rashidi says that the problem is no longer technical but political, and argues that whether such systems are fully implemented or not depends on political will.

Starlink and other space-based internet services known as Low Earth Orbit (LEO) have also complicated Iran’s control during the protests.

LEO internet services allow users to bypass all censorship and closures by connecting via satellites.

The government has managed to block and interfere with some Starlink users, but it has been confirmed to the BBC that other terminals remain operational after the company updated its firmware to bypass the government’s blocking efforts.

The service belongs to Elon Musk, also waived subscription fees For Iranian users.

Despite the growing number of tools used by oppressive regimes, Woodward is surprisingly optimistic about the future of the internet.

He talks about advances in LEO and the fact that many phones can now use satellites even when the internet is down for things like SOS messages.

There are also new applications that use Bluetooth-based mesh networking and can provide connectivity where there is none.

“It’s almost inevitable that internet access will eventually become truly universal, but it will always be cat and mouse for repressive regimes,” says Woodward.