World’s climate plans fall drastically short of action needed, analysis shows | Cop30

Analysis has shown that recent climate plans by many countries fall significantly short of what is needed to stave off the worst effects of climate breakdown.

So far, more than 60 countries have submitted national plans on greenhouse gas emissions to the UN and explained how they will reduce carbon over the next decade.

Taken together, these plans will reduce carbon by just 10% from 2019 levels by 2035. This is only one-sixth of the reduction in global emissions needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

Simon Stiell, the UN’s top climate official, said: “Countries are making progress and taking clear steps towards net zero emissions. We also know that change is not linear and some countries have a history of overemissions.”

But he added that progress was not happening fast enough. “We have a dire need for more speed and to help countries take stronger climate action. This acceleration needs to start now.”

The UN published its assessment of national plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), under the 2015 Paris climate agreement on Tuesday, but some key countries’ assessments were missing. Although China and the EU have made announcements outlining their emissions reduction targets, they have not yet detailed their NDCs.

China’s commitment to reduce carbon output by 7 percent to 10 percent of peak by 2035 has been widely criticized as too weak, while the EU is wrangling over its commitment to a possible range of 62 percent to 72.5 percent within a decade.

Stiell’s estimate of a 10% reduction included China and the EU, but was not included in the official assessment. The forecast included an NDC that the US presented in the final days of Joe Biden’s administration; There is little chance of being followed as Donald Trump has vowed to withdraw from the Paris agreement for a second time.

The UN’s assessment, known as its annual “synthesis report,” did not include an estimate of projected global temperature increases if the NDCs were met. But they certainly won’t be enough to keep temperatures 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the main goal of the Paris Agreement.

The 1.5C threshold has been exceeded in the last two years, but this needs to be maintained for several more years to be considered a permanent breach.

Heads of government will meet in Brazil next week to discuss the climate crisis ahead of the COP30 UN summit, which will take place in Belém at the mouth of the Amazon for two weeks from November 10.

Their mission will be to show how the world can be kept on track to achieve the Paris goals despite the inadequacy of the NDCs. Brazil also wants to focus on financial aid needed for developing countries to reduce their emissions and cope with the effects of the climate crisis.

The meeting is expected to be stormy, given the tense geopolitical situation. Trump will not attend, but his shadow will be felt. He ended renewable energy projects across the US and promised a revival of coal and other fossil fuels.

Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programs at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think tank, said: “These new national commitments are moving the world further and faster, building on the ten-year momentum of the Paris Agreement to eventually start bending the emissions curve downwards. But even if net zero targets cover four-fifths of the global economy, the commitments made to meet the Paris targets are not yet enough, or fast enough.” It is clear that it is not progressing.

“This sets the stage for the work at COP30 where, if they want to put us on the path to net zero, they will need to look at delivering on these commitments, which is the only solution to tackling climate change and limiting more costly and dangerous impacts into the future.”

Steffen Menzel, climate diplomacy and geopolitics program leader at the E3G think tank, said: “The synthesis report underlines the urgent need for leadership and coordination ahead of COP30 in Belém. While some developed and developing countries provide clear examples to follow, delays and inadequate promises from major greenhouse gas emitters such as the EU and China undermine the effectiveness of the Paris agreement.” undermined.”

Keir Starmer and Prince William will attend the leaders’ summit ahead of COP30 next week. The UK’s NDC was one of the first to be introduced and was generally considered strong. But the government must present its domestic plans on carbon this week, which will be a tougher test; There are doubts about whether the key target of decarbonising the electricity sector by 2030 can be achieved without sharp changes in policy.