3 ways investigators could solve the Nancy Guthrie kidnapping

The crowds of reporters camped around Tucson are starting to thin out.

It’s been almost two weeks since Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos held a press conference updating the case.

Despite more than 20,000 tips, the investigation appears to be cooling down and the paths to solving the Feb. 1 kidnapping of Nancy Guthrie may be narrowing.

Authorities insist that the investigation is still fully ongoing and that they have some solid leads: His blood is dripping on the doorstep. Her suspected kidnapper stole the front door’s Nest camera, but not before the ski-masked, gun-toting, backpack-wearing man was caught trying to cover the lens with his gloved hand while lurking on the porch. More than a dozen gloves have since been seized in the surrounding community; including one that an official said was the same glove worn by the person in the video.

Guthrie, the mother of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie, disappeared from her Arizona home more than three weeks ago and there is still no person of interest, a suspect or even a description of the kidnapper’s getaway car.

However, so far, no DNA matches have been found with known criminals in the federal database.

The ransom notes arrived after the kidnapping on February 1, but no evidence was found that Guthrie was alive. Locals were detained and quickly released after investigative leads dried up.

However, experts state that it is too early to call this a “cold case” and that a breakout could occur at any time.

But the ways to find Guthrie and his kidnapper are limited:

1. Forensic evidence

Researchers can achieve scientific progress with DNA evidence.

Sheriff’s investigators say they are still checking DNA from gloves seized in the area and from the home of Guthrie, who was sought after the 84-year-old grandmother failed to show up for church group Sunday, making her missing case the nation’s biggest kidnapping in years.

Nanos and his department said multiple strands of DNA (i.e., two or more individuals) were found tangled from the home and “there may be difficulties in separating the DNA.”

A glove was found two miles from the scene and authorities said it matched the glove worn by the masked man. But the DNA found on the glove did not match any DNA in the Combined DNA Index System, which has more than 19 million criminal samples nationwide.

Investigators did not say how much weight they were giving specific evidence. Still, experts say anything about Guthrie’s DNA found outside the home could also include his kidnapper’s DNA.

“We believe we may have DNA that could be our suspect, but we won’t know until that DNA is separated, extracted, maybe accepted into CODIS through genetic genealogy,” Nanos told NBC News.

2. Familial DNA

Genetic genealogy is famous for the capture of Joseph James DeAngelo Jr., the Golden State Killer who was known for serial rapes and murders in California in the 1970s and 1980s. The technique, known as forensic investigative genetic genealogy, combines publicly available genealogy websites with DNA analysis. National District Attorneys Assn. he heralded it as “a new era in crime solving.”

Thanks to FIGG, authorities can compare DNA collected from Guthrie’s home to public databases that contain the genetic profiles of millions of people who gave DNA for family history research and other reasons. From there, investigators can sometimes find distant relatives to help piece together a family tree that might point to a suspect, said CeCe Moore, a genetic genealogist and co-founder of DNA Justice.

In the Golden State Killer case, investigators recovered old DNA linked to one of his crimes committed at a Ventura County crime lab. Instead of processing it in CODIS, they used another section of DNA to search for potential relatives of the unknown killer in genealogical databases.

Moore added that if the person has a long family history in the United States, it is slightly easier for researchers to use genetic genealogy because there is more representation in the databases that law enforcement can access.

However, law enforcement does not have easy access to the approximately 50 million genetic profiles it contains. Ancestry.com23andMe and MyHeritage databases. These companies have denied authorities access to such information and said they would only disclose it if required by a court order or arrest warrant.

The GEDmatch, FamilyTreeDNA and DNA Justice databases are available to law enforcement but contain fewer than 2 million genetic profiles, Moore said.

“Cases involving Latin American issues are incredibly difficult,” he said. “Mexico is generally a little easier because Mexico has more representation in the database than other Latin American countries. But again, since we’re limited to the smallest databases with less than 2 million profiles, it’s going to be pretty difficult unless they get lucky.”

Investigators can also conduct family searches on the CODIS system, where relatives of the suspect may be placed. Such a search is legal in Arizona.

3. Evidence breakthrough

Identifying the suspected kidnapper: FBI agents identified the masked man’s backpack as the 25-liter Ozark Trail Hiker Pack sold at Walmart, which investigators are now trying to assist investigators with. The gun holster slung between the masked attacker’s legs is called a universally suitable holster by law enforcement and is not suitable for a much larger gun. Retired LAPD Capt. Paul Vernon, who oversaw homicide investigations, said the style of carrying may have looked familiar to some people at gun range and that investigators will be tracking the method of carrying as an important part of the man’s behavior. If law enforcement identifies the man’s specific clothing, gun and carrying case, it could trigger someone’s memory and provide a vital clue, Vernon said.

On Monday, the Pima County Sheriff’s Department addressed reports that a video could be found at the suspect’s door the day before Guthrie was kidnapped, saying it was inconclusive.

“We are aware that doorbell footage released earlier during the investigation showed a suspect in different stages of clothing, including with and without a backpack,” the department said in a statement. “There are no date or time stamps associated with these images. Therefore, any claims that the photos were taken on different days are entirely speculative.”

Mobile phone ping: Investigators, especially those with FBI technical units, will use geofencing to scan cell towers around Guthrie’s home for cell phone users. They will usually try to isolate phones that are not there. Even if the kidnapper is carrying a disposable phone with prepaid minutes, also known as a “burner,” investigators will want to identify the phone and see if they can track its past movements. In a jewelry heist in Los Angeles County last year, investigators linked a user phone from a traffic accident to the location of the robbery and other crimes. If you identify a phone, Vernon said, it’s possible to see if it’s signaling along a route along the highway from Tucson to the border, for example.

Cameras: The investigation also continues to obtain other data from cameras around Nancy Guthrie’s home. Detectives asked residents of the Catalina Foothills neighborhood where Guthrie lived to report suspicious behavior captured on security cameras during the month before the abduction. Initially, any videos specifically related to January 11th were requested. Authorities have not said whether there is evidence that the perpetrator may have been monitoring the home before the kidnapping. But law enforcement experts say it’s not uncommon to see thieves, robbers and home invaders on the watch for a crime in the weeks before.