Trump said beef, egg, chicken prices are falling: What the data shows

In his State of the Union address Tuesday night, President Donald Trump said his administration’s policies are to “swiftly end” high prices on certain foods in the U.S. diet, including proteins like beef, chicken and eggs.

But chicken and beef prices have increased since Trump took office in January 2025.

According to agricultural economists, egg prices have actually fallen significantly; but, like beef prices, were more influenced by supply and demand factors specific to these markets than by federal policy.

Price movements are also on the agenda of the Trump administration. in question meant to “end the war on protein” by announcing new US dietary guidelines emphasizing protein, full-fat dairy and vegetables.

“President Trump is right: inflation is down and prices of daily essentials are down or on track,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in an emailed statement. he said. “The entire Administration is focused on providing economic relief to the American people.”

Trump said during his speech: State of the Union address He said beef prices were “starting to drop significantly.”

Federal data show beef prices have begun to fall in some cases, but remain at multi-year or near record levels.

minced meat cost $6.75 per poundOn average, it’s the highest level recorded in January, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. There are prices increased by 22% Last year, the figure was $5.55 per pound in January 2025, when Trump began his second term. This is the fastest annual inflation rate since June 2020 during Trump’s first term in office.

Other beef prices also rose, according to federal data.

For example, the price of uncooked beef steak is $12.30 per poundThe average in January was down slightly from an all-time high of $12.51 per pound in December, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Prices increased by 13% throughout the past year.

Uncooked beef roast cost $8.82 per poundOn average, January was down from a record high of $9.29 per pound in November. Average prices increased by 14% last year.

Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, said beef prices have “still increased significantly” over the past year.

Swanson said a recent drop in prices was “very faint consolation for most people.”

there was 27.6 million beef cows in the United States as of Jan. 1, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That’s the lowest supply of cows destined for the beef market since 1961, according to USDA historical data that Martinez tracks.

According to USDA data, as of Jan. 1, there were 86.2 million total U.S. cattle, including other breeds such as those used for dairy production; this was the lowest number since 1951.

Bernt Nelson, an economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, a trade group, wrote in October that many factors contributed to the dramatic decline in U.S. cattle herds.

Persistent drought has caused pasture conditions for cows to “deteriorate,” Nelson wrote.

While good pasture conditions have reduced the costs of raising cattle, poor conditions have forced farmers and ranchers to transport hay from other parts of the country, contributing to record high costs of raising and feeding cattle, he said. As a result, he said, many farmers sell female cows rather than keeping them to produce calves.

“It’s hard to produce more beef when you don’t have cattle to do it with,” said Amy Smith, a food economist at Advanced Economic Solutions.

He also said it takes a long time, about three years, to raise cows for the beef market.

Meanwhile, economists said demand for beef is rising in U.S. households even as prices rise.

Retail Whole Fresh Beef Demand Index in 2025 reached its highest levels Martinez has been talking about USDA data since at least 2000.

“Covid-19 and the entire pandemic has led to a lot of new demand,” Martinez said. “Everyone became backyard grilling heroes. …There’s been a change in taste and preference for beef that we’ve never seen before.”

Economists said they do not believe beef prices will continue to fall in the near term due to supply and demand dynamics in the beef market.

There is a Trump administration Tried to increase supply Through policies that encourage beef imports from countries like Argentina. Imports It was already at record levels By 2025, according to the Farm Bureau’s Nelson.

But such market interventions lead to “unintended consequences,” such as lowering the prices paid to U.S. cattle farmers, Nelson wrote.

He wrote that increased imports “will create another impediment to cattle herd growth and potentially encourage further contraction in cattle inventory.” “This could push beef prices even higher and increase the United States’ dependence on imported beef to meet domestic demand.”

That figure is consistent with Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing that the average price of a dozen large Grade A eggs has fallen nearly 59% since March 2025. $2.58 per dozen in January, at a record high of $6.23 per dozen.

Prices down 48% As of January 2025, it was $4.95 per dozen.

Much of that decline, economists say, is due to a return to more typical prices following a supply shock triggered by a historic bird flu outbreak.

“We are seeing extraordinary declines” [in price] from astonishing heights,” said Swanson of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

“Highly pathogenic bird flu,” more commonly known as bird flu, is pushing egg prices to dizzying levels in late 2024 and early 2025, economists said.

The disease is highly contagious and lethal to birds, including chickens on commercial egg farms. Economists have said that to prevent the spread, farmers should kill their entire herds if they detect a case.

In total, tens of millions of egg-laying hens died. For example, more than one 38 million Commercial egg-laying birds die by 2024 USDA data He is being pursued by the University of Arkansas. More than 20 million more people are dead by early 2025.

More than 140 million egg-laying hens have died in the U.S. since the pandemic began in 2022, Advanced Economic Solutions’ Smith said.

“You can’t just bounce back from this,” he said.

While the disease hasn’t gone away, it’s “not nearly as effective” so far in late 2025 and 2026, Smith said.

He said consumer demand likely fell as prices rose, which helped lower prices at the grocery store. He said prices could rise over the next few weeks as the Easter holiday, which is akin to the Super Bowl for the egg industry, approaches.

However, average chicken prices increased by approximately 1 percent compared to last year. consumer price index. Consumers paid $4.17 per pound In January, boneless chicken breasts averaged $3.97 per pound, up from $3.97 a year ago, according to BLS data.

Economists said bird flu did not have as significant an impact on chickens raised for meat consumption as it did on chickens raised for egg production.