Atlanta’s road dominance and history against Sandy Alcantara make them the play vs. Miami Marlins

It was a solid day yesterday as we won 2-1 with my published games. Defeat Brewers vs. It came at the Cubs game. Chicago lost the game 5-0 and I was over 6.5. I was rooting for the Brewers to win, but personally I didn’t get there. We’ll get there all the way today as the Braves take on the Marlins in an evening game.

The Atlanta Braves are among the best teams in baseball. This team struggled last year, mostly due to injuries, but finished fourth in the standings. I think everyone expected they could take a step back last season, but it was a pretty big drop off. This year the team is healthier and looks like it can escape the National League East. They have been strong road warriors this season as well, with an 18-8 record.

Looking to take three out of four games in this series, the team is turning to Spencer Strider. It hasn’t been a long season for Strider, but his numbers look strong with a 1-0 record, 2.45 ERA, and 1.23 WHIP. My biggest concern with Strider is that he has allowed 10 walks in just 14.2 innings pitched this year. Five of them came back in his first game, but he’s still giving up too much in my opinion. The good news for him is that the Marlins are 19th in the league in walks. Collectively, the Marlins are just 1-for-12 against Strider.

The Miami Marlins finished ahead of the Braves last season, but I don’t see that happening again this year. Miami is one of those franchises that seems to be in a never-ending rebuild. The only difference is that the Marlins occasionally have success. They trade any valuable asset before having to close a contract. The Pisces are currently 22-28 for the year, but they have a winning record at home (albeit a slight one of 15-14).

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at CreditDepot Park in Miami, Fla., on April 7, 2026. (Rhona Wise/Imagn Images)

Tonight, they’ll get one of the trade chips by taking the mound. Sandy Alcantara is a guy Miami will likely shop at the deadline, especially if he can regain his Cy Young form. Overall, Alcantara is 3-2 on the season with a 3.53 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He made eight quality starts in 10 starts. Two bad starts were really bad. He allowed seven earned runs in both. During the season, he made two starts in which he allowed 14 earned runs and eight starts in which he allowed 11. The Braves’ hitters were strong against Alcantara.

There are a few guys worth considering for player support. Ronald Acuna Jr. is batting .342 against Alcantara, with half of those hits going to extra bases. Ozzie Albies is 15-for-48 with eight extra-base hits. Austin Riley is on the other side with 15 strikeouts in 35 at-bats. I like to take Riley at +238 in 2+ innings. I also think the other two are 2+ total base and plus in the money. These are worth a sprinkle or playthrough of the same.

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Austin Riley of the Atlanta Braves hits a two-run home run in the eighth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies during Game Two of the Division Series at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga., on Oct. 9, 2023. (Elsa/Getty Images)

Given their history and current form, I think the Braves are the right play this time around. They’re a little more expensive than I’d like to pay at -140, but given the Braves’ history against Alcantara, I think we have a good chance of getting a win. I’ll get player support from the Braves and Riley.

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