Andy Burnham just reached Number 10 – reality set to punch him in face | Personal Finance | Finance

So far Burnham has been lucky. This is not a bad thing. Napoleon Bonaparte called luck “the ability to take advantage of accidents.” Keir Starmer was an accident waiting to happen and Burnham took full advantage of it. He also exploited another accident. Labor was so incompetent that not a single MP or cabinet minister was willing to stand against it. Who wouldn’t feel lucky when the only names in the frame are Wes Streeting, Al Carns and Darren Jones? I had to double-check how the last two were spelled. That’s how invisible they are.

Burnham ran for the Labor leadership in 2010 and 2015. He finished fourth and then a distant second. It’s not hard to understand why he didn’t want to risk it this time. His luck took him to number 10. Now he needs to show courage. So how brave can a man be who misses the opportunity to open his stall for the party and the country? He needs policies too, and so far he has refused to tell us what they are, dodging interviews and dodging awkward questions. This needs to change. Fast.

There’s something we know Burnham wants to do. Spend more money. This is the only way he can keep rebellious Labor MPs on his side. This was never going to be easy, considering there was no money. And now it’s even harder because his luck just got worse.

Britain is practically broke. We owe around £3 trillion on 95% of our annual output, which is the level of danger at which things are in danger of spiraling out of control. Rachel Reeves is expected to add another £140bn to her debt pile this year. We spent £11.7bn paying interest on our debts in May alone. This money would be better spent elsewhere, like defense.

For a brief moment, the pressure appeared to ease. Gilded returns measure the interest we pay on our debt, Donald Trump He claimed that he had achieved peace in Iran, which was expected to lower oil prices, inflation, and eventually interest rates. Now this has changed.

Trump is glowing wildly again. It has no strategy, no tactics. No prizes for guessing what Napoleon would think of him. Conclusion? Gilt yields jumped. Yesterday, 10-year bond yields fell again to 5%. This is where investors start to get nervous. If they reach 5.5% it’s game over.

We can’t blame Burnham for Trump, but she still has to deal with the consequences. If the war drags on, oil prices, inflation and gold yields will rise even further. Burnham can’t borrow any more money. Can’t spend more. And it really, really shouldn’t be taxing more, because that’s now as likely to decrease tax revenues as to increase it.

What he needs to do is tell the deluded Labor Party some hard truths. He needs to come up with a bold plan to cut spending and get the country’s finances under control before the pound suffers a crisis and falls into the hands of the IMF.

This would be difficult at the best of times, but since he doesn’t have the authority to do so, it will be nearly impossible. His strategy so far has been to tell Labor exactly what it wants to hear, and it doesn’t want to hear it. He lucked into power, but his luck ran out on the day of his coronation. And his enemies will soon be lining up to take advantage of this.