John Curtice gives his verdict on the Makerfield by-election – ‘I’ve crunched the numbers’ | Politics | News
Pollster Sir John Curtice said the Makerfield by-election was one of the most important by-elections in modern British political history and Reform UK had a huge advantage as Andy Burnham bids to return to Westminster. A leading election expert has warned the numbers are heavily favoring Reform in a race that could derail Mr Burnham’s leadership ambitions and plunge Labor into a new crisis.
Makerfield voted Leave by 66% in the 2016 EU referendum. Reform came second in the 2024 General Election with 32% of the vote, just 13 points behind Labor, putting the seat in seventh place, the most marginal Labor Reform race in the country. The reform overturned Labour’s 35-point lead in Runcorn & Helsby in last year’s by-election.
In last week’s local elections, Reform’s votes rose to 50 percent in wards entirely or mostly within the constituency, while Labor’s votes dropped to 23 percent.
writing for Great Britain NewsSir John, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, said: “Reform won every council seat up for grabs. In truth the party could hardly have hoped for a by-election in such a promising seat.”
Mr. Burnham joins the challenge with considerable personal goodwill. He received 63% of the vote in the recent Greater Manchester mayoral election; this was a vote share well above Labour’s general election performance in Makerfield, both regionally and locally.
Sir John, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, warned: “It remains unclear whether Mr Burnham’s personal votes for the mayoral position will also appear in a contest in which Labor and its record will feature heavily on the ballot paper.”
A Reform victory would do much more than deliver another by-election gain. This will block Mr Burnham’s path back to the House of Commons at a time when many Labor MPs believe he represents the best chance of boosting the party’s chances at the next general election. For Nigel Farage’s party, this would further fuel Labour’s leadership turmoil and reinforce Reform’s growing strength in traditional centres.
Sir John added: “Even so, Reform would be wise to field a strong candidate. Perhaps this would be an opportune time for the party’s government efficiency chief, Zia Yusuf, or chairman Dr David Bull, to come onto the scene?”
Kemi Badenoch has already confirmed the Conservatives will not stand aside to help Reformation by holding a multi-party contest. However, local election results show that the real struggle is between the Reform and Labor Party.
Sir John concluded that a heavyweight Reform opponent “will certainly help to put Mr. Burnham’s political abilities to the severest possible test.”
