Tanker diplomacy emerges as Trump faces tests from Havana to Hormuz
A man guides the Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin as a tugboat at the oil terminal in the port of Matanzas in northwestern Cuba on March 31, 2026.
Yamil Lage | Afp | Getty Images
Energy shipments are increasingly being used as a foreign policy tool as the Trump administration seeks to lift two blockades on opposite sides of the world.
Under President Donald Trump’s administration, the United States launched a naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping in and around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz in an effort to put economic pressure on Iran and end the Middle East crisis.
This move by China, long the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil, sparked concern, with Beijing calling the blockade “irresponsible and dangerous.”
At the same time, the United States imposed a de facto fuel blockade on Cuba and threatened to impose tariffs on any country sending crude oil to the communist-ruled Caribbean island.
Russia, which has already broken the US blockade by shipping 100,000 tons of crude oil to the fuel-starved country. committed to Continuing to maintain vital oil supplies to Cuba.
Sanctions experts and analysts say both blockades raise questions about the Trump administration’s appetite for challenging maritime authority, especially ahead of the U.S. president’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month.
Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert and managing director at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said there was a good chance a second Russian oil tanker would reach Cuba in the coming weeks, highlighting the White House’s own contradictions.
“When Anatoly Kolodkin docked at the Matanzas oil terminal, it was in direct violation of U.S. sanctions. GL-134 had already been changed to GL-134A, which expressly excluded deliveries to Cuba. Washington chose not to enforce this,” Erickson told CNBC via email.
“Trump then made it clear that he did not care whether Russia delivered to Cuba. After making this statement and refusing to ban or even harass the first ship, it now becomes politically untenable to act against the second ship.”
CNBC has contacted a White House spokesperson for comment and is awaiting a response.
The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which began on Monday, marked a sharp escalation in clashes despite the cessation of hostilities agreed upon on April 7.
But Trump suggested Thursday that the war in Iran could end “very soon.” He also announced a second round of face-to-face talks between American and Iranian officials “probably, maybe next weekend.”
Trump-Xi talks
When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, Erickson said the more dangerous escalation scenario there involves a China-linked or Chinese-flagged ship carrying Iranian oil, not a Russian shadow fleet tanker.
He noted that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: in question The United States will not renew the general license temporarily granted by the White House to Russia and Iran for the sale of seaborne oil during the Iran war. The license will expire at 12:01 a.m. on Sunday.
From then on, Erickson said, Chinese refineries will once again be the largest buyers of Iranian oil that can be exported.
TOPSHOT – US President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrive for talks at Gimhae Air Base, located next to Gimhae International Airport in Busan, on October 30, 2025. Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will seek a ceasefire in their painful trade war on October 30; While the US president predicts a “great meeting”, Beijing is being more cautious. (Photo: ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Photo: ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)
Andrew Caballero-reynolds | Afp | Getty Images
“From a pure statecraft perspective, Iran’s logical move is to test the blockade with a Chinese-linked or flagged tanker. This puts Washington in an extraordinarily precarious situation: interdicting or boarding a Chinese-flagged ship in the weeks before the Xi-Trump talks would be an escalation of a completely different magnitude. Being forced to sink a ship is unthinkable.”
‘Fragile ceasefire situation’
China, which has long supported the regime in Tehran, has harshly criticized the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs The targeted blockade of one of the world’s most important oil transit points, combined with increased military deployment, risked undermining the “already fragile ceasefire situation”, he said earlier in the week.
A tugboat guides the Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin at the oil terminal in the port of Matanzas in northwestern Cuba on March 31, 2026.
Yamil Lage | Afp | Getty Images
“The United States, while maintaining an undisclosed blockade of Cuba, allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach the island last month because Trump does not want a conflict with Russia,” said Max Boot, a foreign policy analyst and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. in question In an online article published Tuesday.
“Is the US Navy prepared to risk a conflict with Beijing now, just as it is preparing for a summit with Xi Jinping, if it intercepts tankers carrying oil to China?” he added.
The White House said that the highly anticipated meeting with Chinese leader Xi will take place in Beijing on May 14 and 15.
— CNBC’s Hugh Leask contributed to this report.
