Democrats may vote at last minute for governor. What it will mean

While many Californians remain undecided about the uncertain Democratic field of the gubernatorial primary, some are waiting to cast their ballots, creating the potential for slower vote counting or a longer wait to find winners.

Political analysts say the landscape could change quickly if Democrats coalesce around a single candidate in the next few days (signs of that are emerging this week), though for now most Democratic-leaning voters appear to be waiting for new developments before making their final decisions.

“This has been a rollercoaster of a race, and I think voters are waiting to see when the ride is over and voting at that time,” Democratic strategist Steve Maviglio said.

Kim Alexander, president of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation, said the larger-than-usual number of people voting by mail on or near election day could delay the vote-counting process. County election officials said they were prepared for that possibility. Early returns so far have not made clear whether most voters will wait longer than usual to vote.

Mike Sanchez, a spokesman for the Los Angeles County Registrar, said the county is “fully prepared” for the possibility of receiving a “significant number” of ballots returned on or around the June 2 election day.

“In primaries, especially primaries with multiple contests and candidates, it is not uncommon for some voters to take additional time to review their ballots and hold on to their ballots longer before returning them,” he said.

Election officials said Californians who want to vote on or near election day can vote in person or use the mail ballot return option, which is not affiliated with the U.S. Postal Service, to speed up the process and avoid the risk of mail ballots arriving late.

The hesitancy of Democratic-leaning voters reflects the toll of a historically uncertain gubernatorial primary race. The contest was marked by the unusual absence of a clear front-runner in the Democratic Party and the party’s inability to line up behind a single candidate after the previous candidate. U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell leaves In April.

Initial concerns within the party that divided Democratic voters could turn out two Republicans on the ballot in November under the state’s top-two primary system also increased the sense of stakes among left-leaning voters.

Those factors, combined with a broad slate of candidates, voter confusion about how the candidates’ platforms differ and a desire to elect the person “most likely to win” make Democratic-leaning voters uncertain, said Christian Grose, director of the USC Democracy and Fair Election Lab.

“Some Democrats choose to vote no matter who is in front… but people don’t know who that person is,” Grose said. “Some [could start] moving away as the race gets more intense.”

A new poll released Tuesday by the California Democratic Party comes as an indication that Democrats are starting to coalesce around former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra. The poll showed 21% of respondents backed Becerra, followed by billionaire Tom Steyer at 15%.

Republican-leaning voters appear to prefer Steve Hilton, who received support from 22% of those surveyed. Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, had 10%. Under California’s primary system, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election.

Records from a handful of districts have shown varying early participation so far.

Michelle Parker, chief election commissioner in San Francisco, said Tuesday that relatively few ballots had been returned in San Francisco, indicating voters may be waiting. He said if people vote by mail rather than voting in person or using a drop box closer to election day, that could impact the speed of vote counting, a possibility the city’s election staff is prepared for.

“We’ll see how quickly they come, but knowing what the news is like and watching what the dynamic is like across the state, I’m not surprised people are waiting,” Parker said, referring to the governor’s race.

In San Bernardino County, 5.6 percent of mail-in ballots were returned as of Tuesday, a rate comparable to previous elections, Registrar of Voters Joani Finwall said. Finwall said election officials “strongly encourage” voters to vote early by using drop boxes or early voting sites.

In Orange County, by contrast, the data obtained so far shows voters are not waiting, the Voter Registration Office said. More than 129,000 mail-in ballots were returned by the end of the day Monday; that number was more than was returned at the same time in the 2024 and 2022 primaries. Among them, a slightly higher percentage of Republicans voted than Democrats.

Registrar of Voters Bob Page said that if large numbers of voters wait until June 2 to vote by mail, the county can process them efficiently, noting that 90% of the county’s early mail-in voting votes are included in the election night results of the 2024 presidential primary.

Grose said voters should be prepared for the possibility that the gubernatorial results may not be determined on election night. On election night, one candidate may appear to be ahead, and after all the votes are counted, another may overtake them.

state election officials I warned you this month It is stated that some social media posts urging Democrats to vote “late” may be misinformation. Secretary of State Shirley Weber’s office said it would review such posts; one of them incorrectly attributed the message to historian Heather Cox Richardson.

Mail-in ballots must be postmarked on or before election day and arrive within seven days of the election; Otherwise, it will be considered late and will not be counted.

Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, acknowledged rumors about people holding onto ballots but said polling released Tuesday shows voters are “beginning to gravitate toward certain candidates.”

Even as Becerra and, to a lesser extent, Steyer’s popularity grew, other Democrats, including former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, San José Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, saw single-digit support in the poll.

“This race is not over; we’ve certainly seen a lot of twists and turns to this point, but you’re seeing some clear consolidations happening for both Democrats and Republicans,” Hicks said on a call with reporters. “I’m not worried about California Democrats’ voices being heard.”

Still, Grose said, the surprises in the race had a negative impact on voters: Swalwell’s departure from the race came amid a series of sexual assault allegations. guilty plea to federal corruption charges and two videos produced by Becerra’s former longtime adviser that raise questions about Porter’s temperament. Lack of explanation by influencers Steyer is being paid to promote him.

“Among Democrats, ‘Is there one more shoe left to drop for anyone?’ There is some uncertainty about this. said Grose. “That’s one reason why people hold on to their ballots.”

Alexander, of the California Voter Foundation, suggested that voters who want to vote after May 26 should send their vote-by-mail ballot to a polling place, county election office or drop box, or vote in person, rather than by the Postal Service, by 8 p.m. June 2.

Because mail-in ballots require election officials to verify signatures, they take longer to count than in-person ballots. Also, recent changes to the US Postal Service slowed down the postal serviceincreases the likelihood that mail-in ballots will arrive late.

Alexander also urged voters to take advantage of Saturday in-person voting and other early voting options at county election offices statewide the weekend before Election Day.

“I have a lot of sympathy for voters who want to take their time to make up their minds in this very volatile election,” he said. “The important thing is to be planned.”