Drier, hotter conditions forecast as El Nino confirmed
Australia’s meteorological agency has confirmed that an El Niño event in the Pacific has the potential to bring drier, warmer weather to parts of the country.
During predictions The Bureau of Meteorology says El Nino indicates a “strong to very strong” climate pattern, saying a strong system does not necessarily mean strong weather impacts for Australia.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Friday there is a 63 percent chance that El Nino will develop at record-breaking strength later in the year.
Australia’s climate is driven by more than just El Niño-Southern Oscillation patterns that rotate periodically in the Pacific Ocean, including the currently neutral Indian Ocean Dipole and regional sea surface temperatures.
Climate change, caused by increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is also raising average temperatures and leading to more erratic and extreme weather conditions.
Latest long term forecasts Combining all potential climate factors, data from the bureau points to below-average rainfall in parts of southern and eastern Australia over the next three months.
It is predicted that daytime temperatures will be higher in the south of tropical regions, and evenings will be warmer than normal in most of the country.
Previous El Niño events have been associated with lower rainfall in winter and spring in eastern Australia, with warmer temperatures and clearer skies in southern regions, resulting in increased frost risk.
“However, in a warming climate, past patterns are less reliable in terms of predicting future impacts,” the bureau said.
Fire departments in eastern states are already preparing for a possible earlier, busier season, and some farmers say livestock and crop decisions are already complicated by the forecast.
Other producers are wary of long-term weather forecasts, especially after livestock prices plummeted with the forecast of El Niño in 2023.
Despite its association with drier, warmer weather in Australia, El Niños can still bring turmoil to the continent; The last cycle in 2023 will have a dry August-October and a rainy November.
El Niño is caused by warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, producing more energy and cloud cover in the region and leading to greater precipitation in parts of South America and the United States, and drier conditions typical of Australia.
It usually takes six to 12 months, and the current pattern is expected to continue until the second half of 2026.
Climate Council Member Andrew Watkins, formerly of the Australian Climate Service and Bureau of Meteorology, said El Nino and climate change were a worrying combination, with the latter already adding about 1.5 degrees of warming to the system.
“Climate pollution and El Nino together roll the dice on record heat and fire conditions.”
Dr Watkins said La Nina years (the opposite of that associated with cooler, wetter weather in Australia) were warmer than El Nino years of the last century.
“This is exactly what we saw happen when temperature records were broken in Australia during La Nina in the summer.”
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