‘Feels like history is being made’: will young Hungarian voters oust Orbán? | Hungary

Hurrying to finish his cigarette before heading to class, 20-year-old Ákos admitted he was in more danger than most as Hungarians prepare to head to the polls in the coming days.

“If things stay the same or get worse, I don’t see a future here,” the student teacher said. “There are a lot of people who want to try living somewhere else, and that’s okay, but I’m not one of them. I’ve been dreaming of working and teaching here for a long time.”

Ákos was four years old when Hungarians voted in Viktor Orbán as prime minister in 2010, setting in motion a 16-year rule aimed at transforming the Central European country into a state. “illiberal democracy” – and it defined much of this student’s early life.

Ákos is a member of the Orbán Generation, a group of young Hungarians who have come of age as a country Dropped in press freedom rankingsIt was accused of being an “electoral autocracy” and It became the most corrupt country in the EU.

It is these people, many of whom will vote for the first time in the general election on April 12, who have now become the primary and strongest drivers of change. A recent survey He suggested that 65 percent of voters under the age of 30 planned to vote against Orbán.

“It could be devastating at times,” said Boldi, 22, another student, noting the lack of opportunities for young people and the stagnation of social mobility. “I think anything is better than a party that has had 16 years to change things and makes it worse.”

In interviews with young Hungarians on an overcast day in Budapest, the Guardian heard many voters express deep hope that their country was on the brink of change. Most polls show Orbán lags behind in voter support He faces an unprecedented challenge from Péter Magyar, a former senior member of Fidesz.

“With all the marches and meetings that are happening, it feels like history is being made,” Betti, 24, said as she walked through a lush courtyard just off the Astoria roundabout in central Budapest.

The election pitted two completely different versions of Hungary’s future against each other; Deep divisions have emerged as Fidesz tries to convince voters that Ukraine is the country’s biggest enemy and Orbán is the only safe hand, while Tisza urges voters to focus on economic stagnation, eroding social services and corruption.

“It’s very bad right now,” said Betti, whose job as a cashier allows her to keep the rising cost of living at the forefront and, like others who spoke to the Guardian, declined to give their surnames. “It’s a little disheartening to know that there are people around you who don’t want things to get better or who believe propaganda like ‘Ukraine is coming for us’.”

Budapest-based political analyst Nóra Schultz said young voters’ drift away from Fidesz — a movement founded by pro-democracy, change-seeking youth that at one point required its members to be under 35 — was one of the biggest stories of the election.

“Even before Tisza came on the scene, there was definitely an air of change among the young people. But when Péter Magyar started leading his party, there was a complete change,” he said. “Fidesz now has less than 10 percent support among people under 40 in the most reliable polls.”

He listed many reasons to explain the change, from domestic concerns about the cost of living and access to housing to a pro-EU stance that clashes with Orbán’s turn towards Russia. Social media also played a role, he added: independent journalists and opposition politicians managed to create spaces that could bypass Fidesz’s tight grip on traditional media, where the party and its loyalists are estimated to control 80% of the medium.

Schultz said before the election that both candidates took very different approaches to winning young people’s votes. Magyar made a conscious effort to help spread the word, while Orbán highlighted initiatives his government is offering, such as subsidies for first-time homebuyers or tax benefits for young mothers.

“Magyar treats young people like political actors. Orbán is more like: ‘Be happy with what you got,’ whereas Péter Magyar says: ‘Come and join me,'” he said.

Schultz said this effect can be clearly seen on places like TikTok, where groups of young women post videos of themselves lip-syncing and dancing to Magyar speeches or showing off flashy nail designs featuring the party’s trademark. “And you don’t see that at all in Fidesz.”

But on the streets of central Budapest, some were quick to emphasize that their vote was for the need for change rather than Magyar. “It cannot be said that all young people are Tisza activists,” said Jani, 21, who is studying to be a film director. “It’s like everyone is against this system and Tisza is the only option we have. I have no sympathy for Péter Magyar, but since I have no other choice, I will vote for him.”

Others were concerned that the opposition tide would not be high enough to remove Fidesz from power. Some of this had to do with electoral math, as polls showed Fidesz maintaining its lead among voters aged 65 and over and in much of the countryside.

But it was also about accusations about the electoral system, which has been largely reshaped over the years to favor Orbán and his party. These claims came to the fore in the last election; The opposition used allegations of gerrymandering and vote buying to explain why its momentum did not translate into electoral success.

Other young Hungarians said they were worried about how Orbán, whose dictatorial approach has been touted as an inspiration to Donald Trump and far-right movements around the world, would react if Tisza wins. “I think they realize it’s over for them now, but I don’t think they’re going to give up without a fight,” Betti said. “They’ll try something.”

Magyar is under no illusions that even if he manages to seize power, the system that Orbán and his party have spent years building will quickly unravel. “We know that even if we change governments, the next four to eight years are going to be difficult because they’ve dragged the country into an absolute shithole. There’s no other way to say it,” he said. “It will be hard, but it will probably get better.”

This optimism was echoed by Ákos, who steeled himself for a result he considered decisive for his future. “I’m pretty hopeful,” he said, extinguishing his cigarette. “Like most of my generation, I expect change. Change in government, change in the system, change in the way people think.”

Although many people refuse to accept it, such a change is sorely needed in today’s Hungary, he said. “I certainly hope that the divisions between Hungarians will diminish over time, so that we will realize that we are not each other’s enemies,” he added. “And we must share this country and work together to make it a better place.”