How the autumn climbing season turned deadly in the Himalayas

Clear skies, calm winds and panoramic views of snow-capped Himalayan peaks – these are what autumn trekkers on Mount Everest love most.

But that seems to be changing.

Meteorologists say the monsoon is now extending into autumn, the traditional season for mountain tourism, and the weather is becoming more unpredictable.

Over the past decade, almost every year, at least one extreme rainfall event has been recorded towards the end of this long monsoon season, making it quite dangerous in the mountains.

Last weekend, a shock snowstorm stranded hundreds of tourists for days in freezing temperatures at an altitude of more than 4,900 meters (16,000 ft) near the east face of Everest.

Chinese state media said about 600 marchers had been directed to safety by the end of Tuesday. It was reported that one person died from hypothermia and altitude sickness, but the others were in good condition.

This was on the Tibetan side, but a similar incident also occurred on the Nepalese side; A South Korean mountaineer lost his life at Mera Summit.

The world learned about this much later because heavy rains and heavy snowfall had hit the communication lines. Authorities estimate that landslides and floods that occurred in the country last week killed about 60 people.

“This is quite unusual for October, when we expect skies to remain clear,” said mountain guide Riten Jangbu Sherpa, adding that hikers have increasingly been caught in unexpected extreme weather in recent years.

He added that given this is the preferred season, frequent storms like this “hamper our trekking and mountaineering business.”

In northern India and Nepal, the monsoon season usually lasts from June to mid-September, but no longer.

“Our data shows that for most of the last decade, monsoon rains lasted until the second week of October, which is definitely a change,” said Archana Shrestha, Deputy Director General of Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.

Even more worrying is the heavy rain and snow that comes with the end of the season, as on October 4 and 5. Ms Shreshtha described this situation as “damaging rainfall in a short period of time”.

In the high reaches of the Himalayas, such extreme weather conditions mean blizzards and snowstorms, which pose a major risk to trekking, mountaineering and tourism.

That’s what happened last weekend when the weather suddenly changed; The winds began to howl, temperatures dropped, and visibility was greatly reduced.

The road that had conveniently brought the hikers to what was supposed to be a breathtaking pit stop was now covered in snow and impassable.

On Cho Oyu, another mountain located between China and Nepal, a team of climbers at the 8,201-meter peak temporarily retreated because the snow fell unabated.

“They returned after the heavy snowfall ended,” said expedition operator Mingma Sherpa, whose team included six members.

But for hikers stranded near Everest’s east face, the return proved much more difficult. Some told the BBC they struggled with hypothermia despite wearing warm clothing as they walked through deep snow. Others said they stayed up for fear of being buried in snow that fell so heavily that they spent most of their time clearing snow.

The incident could have ended tragically had it not been for a well-coordinated rescue operation in which yaks and horses were deployed to clear the snow.

Yet one hiker who has climbed these mountains more than a dozen times told the BBC he had “never experienced weather like this.”

Scientists say that one of the biggest reasons for this is the increase in the amount of moisture in the air due to the warming of the world.

This resulted in heavy rains for a short period of time, usually after a long period of drought, unlike in the past when monsoon showers were spread evenly over four months.

“The weather at this time of year has been changing every year in recent years, we cannot promise anything to our customers,” said Passang, a travel agent in Lhasa, the capital of Tibet.

“September and October were peak seasons with good weather, but these days we are suddenly seeing extreme weather conditions and temperatures are dropping very quickly.”

Monsoons in South Asia are getting stronger at times as they increasingly come into contact with disturbances from another weather system, the west, weather experts say.

This is a low pressure system originating in the Mediterranean region and heading east; It carries cold air that brings rain and occasional snow to northern India, Pakistan, and Nepal.

However, when it encounters warmer and more humid air (which is what happens during the monsoon season), the result can lead to more extreme weather conditions.

Simply put, disturbances from the west “can effectively accelerate the monsoon,” said Akshay Deoras, a weather scientist at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom.

The reason this happens more frequently is that these weather systems are traditionally a winter phenomenon and reach northern India and the Himalayas between December and March.

But meteorologists say they now often arrive earlier in the monsoon and autumn months.

Nepal meteorological department officials said that rain and snowfall in eastern Nepal, where Everest is located, in early October was also due to disturbance from the west.

They added that the western disturbance fueled the low pressure system (part of the tail end of the monsoon) from the Bay of Bengal, pushing the clouds eastwards when they should have actually moved westwards.

Scientists also found that in a warming world, the increased interaction between westerly disturbances and monsoons produces another unusual result.

Warm air is pushing clouds higher, which means these weather systems can now cross the Himalayas and reach Tibet and other regions that didn’t see as much rain before.

A study published in the journal Nature in June states that “climate warming and the interaction between the western and Indian monsoons have caused the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to transition into a warming and wetter climate.”

The Tibetan plateau has always been home to a dry climate. Hot and wet Tibet could mean unstable weather conditions and frequent blizzards and blizzards, scientists say.

“What changes is the reliability of the patterns; we can’t assume conditions will behave the same from season to season,” said Logan Talbott, chief guide for Alpenglow Expeditions, which brings climbers to the Tibetan side of Everest each year.

“This means flexible planning, real-time decision-making and experienced leadership [in the Himalayas] It’s become even more important.”