India, China go head-to-head for Russian crude

India and Chinatwo of the world’s largest oil importersDisruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the halt in peace talks between the United States and Iran have squeezed the market, while global crude oil supplies are competing due to shortages.

The two economic powerhouses are currently engaged in a fierce struggle over limited supplies, mainly from Russia and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia.

“Competition between India and China for Russian crude oil has been intense and will continue to be so for June loading cargoes,” Muyu Xu, a senior analyst at Kpler, told CNBC. he said.

On April 18, the United States eased pressure on global prices by renewing its exemption allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil offshore for about a month. But it did not ease sanctions on Iranian crude, almost 98% of which goes to China, with smaller volumes reaching India.

Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East also disrupted oil supplies from Gulf countries, increasing the demand for Russian oil.

China’s imports through the critical waterway fell to about 222,000 barrels per day in April, according to Kpler; This is a sharp decline from 4.45 million barrels per day (mbd) before the start of the Iran war. India’s supply on this route has fallen from 2.8 million barrels per day in February to 247,000 barrels per day so far this month.

Both countries are looking for alternative sources to fill the gap.

“The virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz is prompting Asian countries to look for cheap crude oil that is easily available, and Russian crude falls into this category,” said Kpler’s Xu.

India appears more vulnerable to supply shocks. Oil imports fell in March and have a limited buffer of about 30 days against prolonged supply shocks, oil industry experts said. They added that unlike other countries, the Indian government did not increase pump prices, hence the demand for petrol and diesel in the country did not fall.

Meanwhile China 45-50% dependent on critical waterway Crude oil imports, according to Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy Policy. But oil stocks can meet demand for three to four months.

Mukesh Sahdev, chief oil analyst at energy intelligence firm XAnalysts, said China is better positioned than many other Asian countries.

Still, Beijing needs crude oil imports to support its massive export and petrochemical industries and boost its strategic reserves in case the war drags on, Sahdev said.

Benjamin Tang, head of liquid bulk research at S&P Global Commodities at Sea, said India imported a total of 4.57 million barrels of crude oil in March, of which 2.14 million barrels (47 percent) came from Russia.

This figure is almost double from February, when Russia’s share of India’s crude imports was around 20%, according to data from Kpler. At the same time, India’s total oil imports fell by more than 14% from pre-war levels.

China’s crude oil Imports also contracted, decreasing by 2.8% annually on a volume basis in March. With Iran’s supplies limited, Beijing turned to Russia to fill the gap.

In an interview with India’s NDTV, Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov confirmed: “India has been buying a lot of Russian oil lately” he said and expressed that Moscow wants to continue this level of energy cooperation in the future. He described US tariffs and sanctions as “illegitimate pressure”.

While New Delhi needs to strike a positive deal with the US, Russian crude oil has become critical to India’s energy security amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

“India has been more exposed to recent disruptions than China, given its dependence on Middle East crude and relatively low inventory levels,” Lin Ye, vice president of oil commodity markets at Rystad Energy, told CNBC.

He said India needed Russian crude oil more but there was stiff competition among Chinese state-owned companies “which returned to the market after the lifting of sanctions”.

Before the Iran war, India was importing more crude oil from Russia than from Saudi Arabia.

Kpler data showed New Delhi’s shipments from Saudi Arabia rose to 1.03 million barrels in February from an average of 638,387 barrels per day in 2025. So far in April, Saudi Arabia has shipped 684,190 barrels of crude oil per day to India.

However, much of Saudi supply is routed to China via the Red Sea, where it has significant refining investments, according to XAnalysts’ Sahdev, leaving Riyadh with a vested interest in supplying Beijing rather than India.

Data from Kpler showed that Saudi Arabia supplied 1.35 barrels of crude oil to China in April, down from 1.04 barrels in March, but below the 1.67 barrels of crude oil in February.

“In case of an indefinite ceasefire, price becomes less important” and supply availability becomes the main issue, Sahdev said.