Inside the Brexit-voting Labour stronghold that looks set to determine our next prime minister

A.Makerfield is about as typical a constituency as a traditional Labor seat you’ll find.

Once the center of coal mining between St Helens and Wigan, Makerfield is not a place in its own right, taking its name from the “inside Makerfield” suffix of the working-class towns of Ashton and Ince.

It’s the perfect brick in the “red wall” that Labor has relied on to shore up its national coalition for decades, and the kind of seat it would never have considered losing.

Labor has held the constituency since its founding in 1983, with its previous iteration spanning more than a century. At almost any time in recent history, a by-election in Makerfield would have been a minor event; Labor would make it work.

However, today the situation is far from this. Sir Keir Starmer’s party faces a huge fight to keep it when voters go to the polls in June for a by-election triggered by Josh Simons’ resignation.

The by-election could send Andy Burnham on his way to Downing Street, but it is another opportunity for Reform to take another big scalp of Labor, hoping to capitalize on local election results in May when it takes a hammer blow to the red wall.

Nigel Farage’s party won 24 of the 25 seats in the Wigan borough of Makerfield, with all or part Reform candidates winning every one of the 10 wards contested within that constituency.

Dealing with the existential threat in such seats, which voted by 65 per cent to leave the European Union a decade ago, will determine whether Labor can still call these places its heartland, whether it can remain the worker’s party and whether it has any chance of staying in power.

Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, describes the constituency as traditionally “rock-solid Labour” and says it is now evidence of how the party has lost touch with its lifelong voters in the post-industrial North.

“It’s overwhelmingly white British, it’s a sort of traditional – ‘We see Labor Party as the instrument of our desires’ – working class vote,” he said Independent.

“And that shows the problems Labor has at the moment because there were huge divisions against Reform in the last general election,” he added.

“So if you look at the local election results in the constituency we see that Reform won overwhelmingly with 50 per cent of the vote just two weeks ago.

“Reform came out of nowhere and is now seen as the vehicle for the aspirations of many people in the constituency.”

Mr. Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, who wants to eliminate the threat of the Reformation. After years of rumors of a return to Westminster, he is expected to challenge the beleaguered Sir Keir for the keys to No 10 if he wins here.

That means voters in this corner of his district can determine whether mayors who live just outside his constituency become leaders of the country.

Mr Burnham is the bookies’ favorite to win but it is likely to be a very close race.

Reformation re-elected Robert Kenyon as its candidate. The local plumber and newly elected councilor reduced Labor’s majority in this seat to 5,000 in 2024 and is hoping to reverse that number this time.

“Now it’s all about participation,” said Prof Tonge.

“Unusually, I expect a similar turnout in the by-election to the general election, so you’re looking at around 40,000 voters in Makerfield who may or may not elect the next prime minister.

“It’s either continuity with Starmer or change through Burnham. That’s a terrible responsibility on their hands and that’s what makes this by-election so extraordinary.”

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons, an MP since the 2024 general election, amid the psychodrama of the Labor leadership following the party’s dismal local election results.

Mr Burnham is easily the party’s most popular politician, particularly in the North West of England, and is seen by many within Labor as the solution.

He was prevented from running in the Gorton and Denton by-elections in February; Labor finished an embarrassing third and is now stepping into this constituency, and possibly the nation, with a style of politics he once called “aspirational socialism” but now calls “Manchesterism”, after almost a decade in charge of the city district that includes the seat of Makerfield.

Mr Burnham believes Britain has surrendered control of its economy through Thatcherite policies, deindustrialization and deregulation, and says he will respond by increasing public ownership while remaining friendly to business.

“Manchesterism is the end of neoliberalism,” he said in his campaign video, promising to make sure politics works in post-industrial spaces like these.

The view among supporters of Mr Burnham, who was born on the outskirts of Liverpool, grew up in nearby Culcheth and represented his neighbor Leigh in parliament from 2001 to 2017, is that he understands these places in a way that few of his colleagues do.

They believe he can reconnect with Labour’s lost voters and is the best choice to stop Mr Farage’s rise, especially in his most loyal constituencies.

Previous figures were in his favor – he received 66 per cent of the vote across Wigan when he is re-elected as mayor in 2024 – but amid the rise of Reform and widespread disenchantment with Sir Keir’s government, this race will test the Burnham brand to its limits.

If he is Labor’s man to stop Mr Farage, he needs to prove he can do it immediately.

When Independent When he visited the constituency on Friday (May 15), a day after Mr Simons resigned and Mr Burnham said he would run, some voters said the popular mayor could bring them back to the Labor Party they believe had abandoned him under Sir Keir.

Joan Preston, 82, a lifelong Labor voter until Sir Keir became leader, outlined her belief that it was no longer the party of the working class.

“If Andy Burnham had survived I would have gone Labor,” he said, describing him as a “working people’s party”.

Others agreed with him, saying he would be the only option that would bring them back to the party.

But there was also vocal support for Reformation on the streets of Ashton-in-Makerfield, with some believing the mayor was using the by-election to further his own career ambitions.

But according to Prof Tonge, he is the only man who can keep Makerfield red.

“Reform would destroy any other Labor candidate,” he said. “The only reason Labor has a chance is because Burnham is standing.”

This illustrates the problems the party faces just two years after returning to government.

People in the North believe that the Labor Party, to which they have always been loyal, has not made any noticeable change in their lives since coming to power, and they do not believe that the current prime minister represents them.

Asked why Mr Burnham, dubbed the “King of the North”, is viewed so differently by voters, Prof Tonge believes it is a combination of his accent, his image built around his taste in music and love of Everton Football Club, his ability to communicate and how he can embody the ambitions of a working-class Cambridge graduate.

“Nobody can say he’s assertive,” he said. “He is quite ready to chat with anyone on the street and conveys his ideas quite well.

“You wouldn’t describe Starmer as a great communicator.”

Ensuring he is seen by voters as a decisive break from Sir Keir will be central to Mr Burnham’s chances; It’s a particularly strange situation for Labour’s by-election candidate to find himself.

“The byelection is all about the Burnham brand,” the professor added. “This is all about Burnham’s version of the Labor Party, not Starmer’s version of the Labor Party.”

“Burnham is about expanding ‘Manchesterism’ into a sort of semi-autonomous Labor Party policy – a sort of northern policy that is certainly about protecting ordinary working people against the hit they might take, whether from inflation or from people who don’t care about them. It’s about standing up for local people.”

The reform campaign criticized Mr Burnham for using a seat they claim he doesn’t care about and his record in previous Labor governments, as they present their candidate as the real local option.

This will only go so far, according to Prof Tonge, who sees this race as a direct clash between Reform’s growing popularity and Mr Burnham’s ability to win back Labor voters.

He explained: “Reform won’t gain much by carpetbagging him, because his local connections are so obvious. The question is whether he can leave Reformation behind.”

“Losing this would be an absolute disaster for Labor, because if not Burnham, who is?”