Jobs data to reveal first signs of Iran war impact
The new jobs figures will be an early indicator of how the Australian economy is faring amid the Iran war; as a report points to positive signs for government finances.
Labor force figures for March will be published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, the first full month of data since the start of the Iran conflict and the disruption of oil trade by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Economists predict unemployment will remain at 4.3 percent even though the number of jobs increased by 25,000 during the month.
Westpac economist Ryan Wells said the data was important as it was the first decline consistent with war, but it may be too early to tell the full impact of the conflict.
“It is almost certainly too early for this shock or the flow-on effects of recent interest rate increases to be reflected in labor markets,” he said.
“Changes in non-fuel spending are still evolving; discretionary services spending has softened largely in accommodation and leisure, but there is no real sign of weakness in discretionary goods spending.”
The previous month’s figures showed a surprise increase in unemployment, rising from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent, due to the decrease in the number of unemployed waiting to start a new job in February compared to the same period of the previous year.
The International Monetary Fund’s fiscal monitoring report found Australia’s budget balance is among the three strongest among G20 countries.
The balance as a share of GDP is ahead of countries such as the US, UK, Germany and Japan, while compared to economic output, the country has the fifth lowest debt, the report said.
“The Commonwealth has established a strong fiscal position that can help buffer future financial fluctuations,” he said.
The findings dovetail with Finance Minister Jim Chalmers’ talks with counterparts from Britain, China and Japan in Washington for the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.
The IMF warned that if the situation in the Middle East does not improve, a global recession may occur.
Dr Chalmers said the government’s finance ranking was an outstanding result.
“We are not immune to global volatility as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, but we are well positioned to face it thanks to the progress we have made on the budget,” he said.
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