Trump Iran deal ends the shooting, but securing lasting peace is harder

More than two decades ago, as a Pentagon strategist in the run-up to the Iraq War in 2003, I found myself asking a question that gets far less attention than troop movements, air strikes, or invasion plans: What happens after the initial victory?

Military planners focused on defeating Saddam Hussein’s regime. I continued to worry about what would happen next. Although I had access to high-level planning discussions and confidential assessments, I believed that too many assumptions were made about the peace that was expected to emerge after the fighting stopped.

The same question came to my mind Sunday when President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had reached a memorandum of understanding to end the nearly four-month-long war, allowing for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. An official signing ceremony will be held in Geneva on Friday, June 19, hosted by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

The guns are falling silent. Diplomats return to the table. Oil futures fell 4% and stock markets rebounded on the news. These developments should not be ignored.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IN THE IRAN WAR? WHAT WILL THIS FIREKEEP DO AND WON’T DO?

But history teaches us that ending war is not the same as securing a lasting peace.

The wind is on your back – for now

Trump deserves credit for bringing this conflict to this point. It was planned to arrive in Evian-les-Bains today, June 15, for the G7 summit, which will be held with real momentum on June 15-17. It left Canada’s G7 early last year due to growing conflict. This year came with the announcement of its temporary end.

TRUMP IS RESTRUCTURING THE WORLD ENERGY MARKET AND IRAN ATTACKS ARE REALLY HELPING

Economic risks were serious. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February, choking off roughly 20% of global oil supply, or about 20 million barrels per day. Inflation in the United States reached 4.2% in May, the highest level in the last three years, almost entirely due to the energy shock of the Iranian shutdown.

The International Maritime Organization has confirmed that there have been at least 46 attacks on international shipping in and around Hormuz since the conflict began. Reopening the strait is the most immediate economic relief possible.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the agreement reached and said it should be implemented “with determination”. He stressed, “The Strait of Hormuz must be opened to free navigation permanently and without any restrictions” and said Iran must “verifiably” discontinue its military nuclear plans. Even allies who question military action cannot credibly ignore what has been done.

Trump scheduled bilateral meetings at the G7 with Macron and leaders from Egypt, Qatar, the UAE and India, regional partners whose quiet cooperation made this agreement possible. Qatar and Pakistan served as primary mediators; Saudi Arabia provided critical support. This coalition is a real diplomatic success.

A pause is not peace

But Americans should view this agreement for exactly what it is: a strategic pause.

TRUMP’S IRAN WAR NOW COMES TO A PAINFUL QUESTION: WHAT COMES NEXT?

This is not a criticism. A strategic pause may be exactly what is needed right now. But taking a break is not the solution.

Trump deserves credit for bringing this conflict to this point.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) extends the ceasefire for 60 days, including in Lebanon, where nuclear negotiations will be held. A senior administration official confirmed that Iran has pledged “never to procure or develop nuclear weapons indefinitely”; This is a commitment that, if confirmed and implemented, would exceed what the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action has achieved so far. Sanctions relief is linked to compliance. These terms are strong on paper.

The ink was barely dry before the contradictions surfaced. Iranian state media contradicted US officials on the Hormuz terms, claiming that Iran reserved the right to charge transit fees. The international maritime industry warned that despite the announced agreement, “it is still very risky for ships to start transiting through the Bosphorus.” The actual MOU text was followed closely; European allies told CNN they were working through diplomatic talks rather than the document itself.

NETANYAHU’S ISRAEL GROWS WITH TRUMP-IRAN DEAL WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN

The Lebanese dimension is the most immediate complication. Israel was not a party to the negotiations. Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Monday that the Israel Defense Forces would not withdraw from Lebanon, Syria or Gaza under any agreement, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told Trump directly that Israel does not see itself as bound by Lebanon’s terms. Hezbollah fired drones into northern Israel even as the deal was announced on Sunday.

The agreement does not solve the crisis. It pauses the crisis and creates the opportunity to resolve it.

Tough criteria

ANY NEW IRAN DEAL SHOULD BE EVALUATED BY RESULTS, NOT BY VICTORY TALK

What should Americans watch?

First, does Ormuz really remain open, not only unblocked but also relied upon by commercial shipping and carried at normal volumes by tankers? Iran’s conflicting statements on transit fees, the need to clear mines, and the maritime industry’s reluctance to resume transit passages suggest that the reopening will be contested.

Second, does Iran agree to verifiable, permanent limits on its nuclear activities, approved decommissioning of its enrichment infrastructure, and full inspector access? Trump said on Saturday that the deal would eliminate Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. There was no reference to the nuclear program in Sunday’s announcement. This gap is important.

MARK LEVIN: AGREEMENT OR DEAL?

Third, is regional violence truly decreasing or is it shifting from one front to another? Israel’s refusal to abide by the Lebanon provisions was the kind of inconsistency that had brought down previous agreements.

Fourth, will this agreement be able to exceed the 60-day period and produce a second, binding agreement? Many ceasefires last for weeks. Far fewer provide permanent placements. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Tehran ultimately subverted, is a case in point. Hope is appropriate. Naïveté is not like that.

An excavator removes rubble from the site of the attack that destroyed half of the Khorasaniha Synagogue and nearby residential buildings in Tehran, Iran, on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, according to a security official at the scene. (Francisco Seco/AP Photo)

measure of success

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Success is not measured by a signing ceremony in Geneva, positive market reactions or a post on Truth Social. Success is measured by whether the underlying causes of conflict are addressed in a way that reduces the likelihood of a future war.

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As I learned from my years at the Pentagon, military operations can achieve significant results. The harder challenge is to achieve the peace that always follows. President Dwight D. Eisenhower understood this after the Korean War. We learned the hard way after taking Baghdad in April.

President Trump may ultimately regard this agreement as one of his most significant foreign policy achievements. I really hope you can do this.

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He would arrive at the G7 today with the wind at his back. The question that will determine his legacy is not whether he finished the attack. What matters is whether the architecture built in the next 60 days is stronger than Tehran’s ambitions, Israel’s independent judiciary, and the region’s long history of swallowing diplomatic frameworks whole.

Shooting may have stopped. The real test is just beginning.

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