Mexico says only about one-third of 130,000 people listed as ‘disappeared’ can be confirmed as missing.

MEXICO CITY — Mexican officials say the goal is to clarify one of the country’s most explosive questions: What happened to the more than 130,000 people officially listed as “disappeared”?

Their faces are plastered on walls and lampposts across Mexico, and demonstrators regularly unfurl banners demanding the return of loved ones whose names are chanted.

Now, a year-long government investigation has sparked a contentious new debate about the disappearances.

The review concludes that the 130,000 figure is highly inflated and includes tens of thousands of people who may be alive or may have made it onto the list without being properly identified in the first place.

The government says other names are likely duplicates, and some people may have voluntarily removed themselves from the list for personal reasons.

Human rights defenders and relatives of the disappeared immediately condemned the report as a cover-up and the latest attempt to “eliminate the missing”.

“This report is nonsense, a joke,” said Raúl Servín, from a group of citizens searching for the missing in the western state of Jalisco, which regularly ranks high for missing persons. “The government doesn’t like people talking about the missing, but they can’t hide it.”

While not disputing errors in the data, many critics say the true number of those missing is likely much higher than 130,000. Organized crime exercises de facto control over large parts of the country where the discovery of secret graves is commonplace and thousands of unidentified bodies lie in morgues and public cemeteries.

The majority of those missing have been reported missing since 2006, when the government launched a “war” against drug traffickers, ushering in the most violent period in Mexico’s recent history.

Official figures desaparecidos It has more than doubled since 2018. But advocates say some people are likely afraid to report missing cases to authorities who are themselves on the organized crime payroll.

The new findings divide the 130,000 cases into three main groups:

Actual losses: In one-third of cases (43,128), identities are checked and there is no record of activity after the loss is reported. However, only 3,869 (about 9%) of this group were under investigation; This highlights prosecutors’ reluctance to confront the cartels, critics say.

Likely alive: About 31% were active in government databases such as tax, voting and marriage applications after being reported missing. This suggests they may still be alive or alive for some time beyond their reported absence. Authorities were able to find 5,269 people in this category and put their names in the “found” column.

Missing cases: About 36% (46,742) of the cases lacked vital information such as full name and date of birth and could not be meaningfully investigated, officials said.

Mexican security official Marcela Figueroa told reporters that overall, 78 percent of those disappeared were men between the ages of 30 and 59. The remaining 22 percent consists mostly of young women between the ages of 18 and 29.

Authorities speculate that some people listed as missing may have deliberately disappeared from view, abandoning their families or participating in organized crime.

The new findings were announced on March 27 in a politically charged environment. Activists have long accused the government of downplaying the issue. Former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose tenure was marked by record numbers of disappearances and murders, complained that his political rivals were exaggerating the problem to tarnish his reputation and legacy.

On Thursday, a United Nations committee concluded that the disappearance crisis in Mexico constituted a “crime against humanity” and took what it called an “exceptional step” to refer the issue to the General Assembly.

The UN’s main forum was asked to provide technical, financial and other assistance to Mexico to create “an effective mechanism to uncover the truth and provide assistance and protection to families, organizations and advocates searching for the missing.”

Mexico’s foreign ministry quickly rejected the UN action, saying the government “does not authorize, authorize or order enforced disappearances.”

In reality, most disappearances result from kidnappings through organized crime. But in a country where critics say authorities often act in collaboration with organized crime, investigators have frequently linked police, soldiers and other official actors to the disappearances; The most sensational was the disappearance of 43 student teachers in the town of Ayotzinapa in the western state of Guerrero in 2014.

Only a few charred remains were found. Activists say the fact that the Ayotzinapa case remains largely unsolved is a powerful example of official impunity regarding the disappeared.

In Mexico, where any public discussion of violence is sensitive, polls show that citizens cite safety as their most pressing concern. Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum boasts of a 30 percent or more reduction in homicides and other serious crimes since she took office 18 months ago.

Security is now a particularly sensitive issue as Mexico prepares to host World Cup matches in June and July. Mexican officials have argued passionately that the country would be safe for the multi-city football extravaganza.

Such assurances provide little comfort to relatives, friends and colleagues of the forcibly disappeared.

“The government is doing nothing and leaving it to us civilians to find our missing people,” said Virginia Garay Cazares, who set up a search group in the state of Nayarit, a center of organized crime on the Pacific coast.

His son, Brian Arias Garay, disappeared on February 6, 2018, while he was on his way to work selling hot dogs and hamburgers. He was 19 years old.

Like others, Garay said he feared the government would use the new study to ignore cases like his son’s.

“It is no longer possible for the authorities to throw the names aside because of these findings,” Garay said. “They have to go through the lists one by one and look for everyone who is missing.”

Sheinbaum vowed not to purge people from the records.

“Our obligation is to continue to look for everyone, every person,” Sheinbaum said last week. “And also to eliminate this crime. There should be no more disappearances in Mexico.”

They all agree. But the Miguel Agustín Pro Juárez Center for Human Rights concluded that the new study “assumes that the majority of disappearances are voluntary absences minimizes state responsibility.”

Government inaction lies behind the rapid proliferation of volunteer search “collectives” in recent years, many of which consist of relatives of the missing.

Volunteers search for hidden graves and often dig with simple tools and their bare hands; they also organize high-profile demonstrations and have emerged as a critical component of Mexican civil society.

But searchers also face risks. The gangs warned them to retreat. At least 35 searchers have been killed in Mexico since 2010, according to Article 19, a human rights group.

the latest victim Cecilia Garcia RamblasIn 2021, he became a search warrant officer when his brother went missing in the family’s hometown of Guanajato, where gang wars have turned the state into Mexico’s murder capital.

Prosecutors said García Ramblas was kidnapped last month and later found dead. He was 28 years old.

Sánchez Vidal is a special correspondent.