Midterm strategy shift: GOP keeps Trump agenda, softens Trump
Strategy? Try to leverage Trump’s turnout power without turning the races into a referendum on an increasingly unpopular president.
Also Read: Israel tensions surface as Democrats plan US midterm elections
In a closed-door meeting this week with senior conservative campaign officials, Trump’s political advisers — including White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, political chief James Blair and longtime pollster Tony Fabrizio — outlined a plan for the candidates that would promote Republican tax cuts and anti-inflation policies, according to four people familiar with the meeting.
But strategists worry that Trump’s declining political fortunes could hurt candidates in competitive congressional races, while Republicans want to avoid making Trump himself the focus of the campaign. Trump’s party faces an uphill battle to maintain its majority in the House of Representatives and the risk of losing control of the Senate.
Concerns are growing among some Republican operatives that Trump’s presidency and political clout is waning, according to three of the people, as well as another veteran Republican campaign source who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private meetings and offer candid assessments.
Also Read: Will Iran war cost Donald Trump badly in US Midterm Elections? Republican experts gave clear warningTrump appears to be at an impasse with Iran, where both military and diplomatic efforts have fallen far short of denuclearizing the Islamic Republic and reopening the Strait of Hormuz after two months of war. Rising gas prices, where the national average is near $4 per gallon, threaten to neutralize new tax policies from Republicans’ “One Big Good Bill Act,” the signature legislative achievement of Trump’s second term, according to AAA.
Only 36 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s poorest job performance of his current term, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. And many Americans, including some Republicans, have some concerns about the 79-year-old president’s temperament and mental acuity after a series of outbursts.
“[Democrats] “We will try to nationalize the election and say we are a stamp of approval for Trump,” a political strategist at Trumpworld told Reuters. “We need to get out of this and show why we are the better choice on a racial basis.”
Excitement remains strong that Trump is an effective messenger in the president’s political operation. Kiersten Pels, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, said Trump will remain the “strongest driver” of conservative voter turnout in the midterm elections and that Republican candidates are eagerly seeking his endorsement.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Trump “is the undisputed leader of the Republican party and is committed to preserving the Republicans’ majority in Congress.”
EMPHASIS ON LOCAL PROBLEMS, NOT TRUMP
On Monday, over coffee and pastries at a meeting held at the Waldorf Astoria, once Trump’s luxury Washington hotel, Trump’s team asked guests to sign confidentiality agreements and then predicted Republicans would win the redistricting election in Virginia the next day. People familiar with the meeting said the tone was upbeat.
Details of the meeting were leaked immediately. A day later, Virginia voters approved the new congressional map Democrats drew to boost their party in November.
“If the people who are framing this approach are confident in Virginia and they are defeated in Virginia, you have to question: Are they overconfident in the whole package?” One of the people familiar with the meeting said this.
Some Republican insiders are quick to point out that the midterm elections are months away and that could change before voters head to the polls. If armed conflict with Iran slows down, gas prices could fall and inflation more generally could cool.
“People are looking at things in a panic right now, but I think the key is to predict where this might happen over the summer, and it’s still very fluid,” said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-affiliated Club for Growth.
Heading into the election cycle, Republicans planned to promote Trump as the party’s standard-bearer and the man who, in his oft-repeated phrase, made the United States “the warmest country in the world.”
Wiles said in December that Republicans would upend traditional midterm tactics by putting the incumbent “on the ballot” for Trump rather than keeping him at bay.
Now people say that plan is less attractive. They added that Republicans will try to emphasize local issues rather than loyalty to the president.
“The politics have changed,” said another person familiar with the meeting. “It made some sense to nationalize the race around him in January.
“Voters don’t think the president is doing enough to make their lives cheaper, but they still believe Republicans want to do it,” the person said.
The Trumpworld strategist added that the Democratic Party’s low popularity provides Republicans with an effective barrier to contradict policy ideas.
But Trump’s declining support could give Democrats fertile ground to associate Republican candidates with the president’s shortcomings and cause some conservative campaign officials to be skeptical of the White House’s political approach.
Trump, who ran a campaign criticizing “stupid wars” in 2024 and described himself as a “peace president”, is now leading the largest US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Critics say the Trump administration has shown little thought about how Iran would respond to a joint U.S.-Israeli attack or major economic hit, including an unprecedented global energy supply shock and the threat of a worldwide financial crisis.
Trump’s decision on Tuesday to indefinitely extend the initially two-week ceasefire was widely seen as a retreat as Tehran maintains its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its commitment to its nuclear program.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for both Democratic and Republican administrations, said he believes Iran has influence over the vital oil shipping channel and also can withstand more economic pain than Trump.
“Iranians think Trump’s tolerance for economic and political costs is limited,” said Miller, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They’re getting ready to wait for him.”
