Republicans finally get some good news. Can it last?

Republicans are breathing a little easier this weekend and are cautiously optimistic that President Donald Trump has found a way to end the war in Iran.

With oil falling below $90 per barrel, the stock market hit all-time highs, while gas also declined. 8 cents a gallon this weekSome are feeling a gentle wind on their backs for the first time since the war began in late February.

“Everyone knows the historical trends. But at least lower gas prices could bring back some of the post-State of the Union momentum by actively putting the war behind us,” said Matt Gorman, GOP communications strategist at Targeted Victory. “Republicans are dying for the ability to go on the offensive again.”

It is not yet known whether Trump and Iran will give them this chance. Iranian military officials said on Saturday that once was again brought under “tight control”The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing US blockade is a sign of how fragile and possibly temporary progress may be. The move came after assault boats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards opened fire on a tanker trying to pass through the strait.

Although it may seem too early to pop the champagne,Iran also denied That Trump agreed to transport his enriched uranium to the US as he claimed – the consolation is in proportion to how dire things looked just a few days ago. The trick, Republicans say, is to keep distractions to a minimum; This is no small task when the party leader is one social media post away from a new controversy. Success also depends on the administration’s theory of a rapid economic recovery proving correct and voters feeling relieved.

“It’s certainly relieved in the short term, but it’s the mini political grenades that remain challenging,” said one GOP donor, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak publicly. “Rather than being able to [to] “As the focus this week is solely on tax returns, members have received questions about the pope and the ballroom.”

The frayed nerves underscore how damaging the last few weeks have been for GOP supporters and strategists. war with Iran it was never popular broke the MAGA base and raised questions about the president’s stance on the basic principle of action. Polls show House of Representatives likely lost And Senate may intervene. A rise in gas prices could undo one of the president’s signature achievements: a massive tax cut that is expected to line voters’ pockets and stimulate the economy. along the way, fight with the pope, a setback in war And Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary It gave the impression of a management that was at the mercy of events rather than controlling them.

“The Iran issue remains a contributing factor to voters’ broader core concerns about the economy and global stability,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist and partner at Penta, a Washington-based consulting firm. “It’s a good thing that tensions have eased. But what really matters in the context of the 2026 midterms is how resilient today’s stance is.”

The permanence of the dueling ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon is uncertain at best, but Tehran’s decision earlier this week to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz added The promise of European leaders Helping to secure that gives hope to Republicans who believe their fate depends on the price at the pump.

“Congressional Republicans breathed a huge sigh of relief today,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Republican from Florida. “It looks like they can put the Iran conflict in the rearview mirror; they still have plenty of time to refocus voters on tax cuts and other issues. It’s going to be a steep uphill climb, but now they’ll have a chance.”

White House press secretary Taylor Rogers said Friday’s good news proved the president’s claim that economic disruptions from the war would be short-lived.

“By consistently delivering on his promises to the American people, President Trump has proven the ‘panicists’ wrong time and time again. The President remains laser-focused on keeping the American people safe, reducing costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever before,” Rogers said. “The President has always been clear that these are short-term, temporary setbacks that will be resolved through the unprecedented successes of Operation Epic Fury and subsequent peace talks.”

Trump was also in a celebratory mood. Trump told reporters Friday in Arizona, the second and final stop of his southwestern tour of battleground states to promote tax cuts, that it was a “big day.”

“We’ll see how it all turns out, but it should be good, there were some very good discussions,” Trump said. “The talks are ongoing, they will continue over the weekend and there are a lot of good things happening.”

Speaking at a Turning Point event in the US, Trump appeared to be in an optimistic mood; He touted a lower trade deficit, the end of DEI, and tax cuts, among other issues he believed were the highlights of the second term, and he explicitly attributed those successes to the need to win the midterms.

“You’ve got to go out and vote Republican, we need it,” Trump said before delivering the good news of the day. “Did you see oil falling today? Did you see prices falling today?”

Not everyone shared Trump’s enthusiasm, though; Some Republicans were wary that a Trump-sized shoe was about to drop.

“I would say I’m a cautious optimist, I don’t fully believe this is going to last,” said one GOP official working in the swing state.

And for all the joy, some Republicans, especially those less enamored of Trump’s leadership, still think all that good news has done little to stem the blue wave heading their way.

“An end to the war with Iran and the resulting Iran giving up its highly enriched uranium and shutting down its military nuclear program would increase the likelihood that Republicans would lose the House by only a 15-20 vote margin,” said former Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado.