Restore Britain set to sweep Andy Burnham to victory in Makerfield and beat Reform UK, new poll suggests ahead of by-election
Rebuild Britain voters will lead Andy Burnham to victory at Makerfield, according to a new poll that suggests a split in the right-wing vote could hamper Reform UK’s chances.
Constituency poll seen Independent It claims Rupert Lowe’s far-right party has won enough voters to prevent Nigel Farage’s candidate Robert Kenyon from claiming victory over Labor in the crucial by-election.
According to the poll, the mayor of Greater Manchester has a narrow lead on 46 per cent, while Mr Kenyon is five points behind on 41 per cent.
Meanwhile, Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd’s share is around 7 per cent. This means it could be the decisive factor in swinging the contest in Mr Burnham’s favor and determining whether he returns to Westminster to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labor leadership.
But Mr. Burnham’s lead in the poll is within the margin of error of just under 5 percentage points and the margin of his end-of-campaign movement; Which means it’s too close to reach a decision.
The poll of 543 adults, minus undecided and non-voters, was carried out by Opinium for the campaign group Forward democracy and is the largest election survey ever conducted ahead of Thursday’s contest.
The poll shows the Conservatives are on around 2.5 per cent of the vote, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats are on less than 2 per cent, meaning they will all lose their deposits.
Restore Britain was founded by Mr Lowe, who was suspended from Reform UK last year amid allegations he threatened party chairman Zia Yusuf.
He denied the allegations and the Crown Prosecution Service said no criminal charges would be brought against him in relation to the alleged threats against Mr Yusuf.
The party, which has so far been largely based in Lowe’s Great Yarmouth constituency, is further to the right than Reform on issues such as immigration.
Mr Farage has sought to reduce the impact of Restore Britain’s presence in the by-election by insisting the contest is a “two-horse race” between Labor and Reform, but it is already clear that the fledgling party is missing out on Reform voters.
Earlier this week, Professor Sir John Curtice, one of the UK’s leading pollsters, said polls suggested Restore Britain “could make the difference between winning or not winning the Reformation”.
“They generally elect the same kind of people as Reform. National polls show they support the younger section of Reform,” he said IndependentHe adds that Restore Britain is more likely to be “a potential spoiler rather than a major player”.
He said: “Their 6 or 7 per cent vote could be more or similar to Labour’s lead over Reform.”
Forward Democracy, which operates Stop Reform UK, a tactical voting website, said the poll showed Mr Burnham as “the only candidate who can stop” Mr Farage’s party.
Founder Tom de Grunwald said: “If you live in Makerfield and would normally vote for the Greens, Liberal Democrats or anyone else, and you don’t want Reform UK to win this seat, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop them.”
It is understood Mr Burnham’s team is already organizing the Downing Street operation and is scouting candidates to join his senior team, including cabinet roles, with the expectation that he will become leader and prime minister once he returns to parliament.
Details of Mr Burnham’s preparations for No 10 include an overhaul of communications in Downing Street, identified as one of Sir Keir’s biggest weaknesses.
He is also beginning to set out roles in the cabinet, with Louise Haigh and deputy leader Lucy Powell among those expected to be included.
Deputy prime minister David Lammy and chief whip Jonathan Reynolds are understood to be on the list of ministers likely to be sacked by Mr Burnham, who has publicly vowed to end the sacking of rebel MP Karl Turner, who has been a vocal critic of Mr Lammy’s reforms to jury trials.
