Self-aggrandising ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham has his chance to take on Starmer… if he has the bottle
When Andy Burnham was offered a roadmap to replace Keir Starmer last night, Labor was descending into civil war.
Disgraced former minister Andrew Gwynne yesterday confirmed he was standing down from his Greater Manchester seat, ending months of speculation and clearing a path for Mr Burnham to return to Parliament where he could launch his leadership bid.
The move triggered an angry response from the Prime Minister’s allies; He warned supporters of the risks of the by-election turning into a ‘circus’.
It also appeared to spark a backlash in financial markets over fears that a leadership contest could destabilize the government and push Labor further to the Left.
But it was unclear last night whether Mr Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, would run.
The self-described ‘King in the North’ refused to say whether he would stand in the election, saying ‘people shouldn’t jump to conclusions’ as rumors swirled in the hours before Mr Gwynne officially resigned.
Yet the Prime Minister’s allies were lining up to thwart his chances.
And election experts have pointed out that the once-safe red seat has become a triple marginal with Reform and the Greens vowing to throw everything at it.
Labor was heading towards civil war last night as Andy Burnham was offered a roadmap to replace Keir Starmer.
Mayor of Greater Manchester could launch leadership bid to oust Labor leader
Disgraced Labor MP Andrew Gwynne is leaving the House of Commons on medical grounds, which will trigger a by-election in his Gorton and Denton constituency
Sir Keir’s private secretary Morgan McSweeney is considering whether the Prime Minister will use his majority on Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to block Mr Burnham’s candidacy.
Some allies even called on the party to introduce an all-female shortlist to keep her out. The Prime Minister yesterday refused to say whether he would support Mr Burnham’s candidacy. Union leaders, who have been critical of Sir Keir’s leadership, have warned against any attempt to ‘stitch up’ the nomination.
Steve Wright, chairman of the Fire Brigades Union, said it would be ‘a democratic disgrace to prevent Andy Burnham from being elected as the Labor Party by-election candidate in this seat’.
Mr Wright, whose union has a seat on the NEC, said he ‘will not stand by and allow senior Labor politicians like Andy to be excluded from this process’.
Mr Burnham, who has been mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017, is the favorite among Labor members to replace Sir Keir. But he can only challenge the leadership if he has a seat in parliament.
Mr Burnham, MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017, has held the leadership seat twice and has made little secret of his desire to succeed Sir Keir, prompting a chill from many at last year’s party conference.
Yesterday he refused to say whether Mr Gwynne would stand in the Gorton and Denton constituency, claiming he was left ‘in the dark’ about his colleague’s intentions.
But his allies told The Mail on Sunday last month that he was ready to strike a deal to fight a by-election to return to the House of Commons.
Mr Gwynne was suspended by Labor last year after The Mail on Sunday revealed a series of disturbing WhatsApp messages he had sent; These messages included a message in which he said he hoped the death of an elderly voter who complained about garbage collection.
He reportedly made a deal to retire for health reasons in exchange for security over the MP’s pension. House of Commons sources suggested the deal would see Mr Gwynne, who is only 51, paid until retirement age, at which point he would receive a full Parliamentary pension. According to one insider, this package could be worth around £1 million.
The ten-year bond yield rose minutes after reports emerged that Mr. Gwynne had withdrawn. Yields on government bonds are small parcels of debt that are bought and sold in financial markets. A sharp increase in yields is often a sign of concern among investors.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s allies have reportedly launched a campaign to stop Andy Burnham returning to parliament
The departure raises the prospect of a nightmarish by-election for Labour.
On paper the constituency has a safe Labor seat; Mr. Gwynne won in 2024 with a majority of more than 13,000. But recent polls suggest the seat could fall to Reform England or even the Greens.
Nigel Farage yesterday said he would throw everything at the race in a region where Reform is gaining ground.
He told the Daily Mail: ‘This by-election is by no means a sure thing for Labor, the left-wing Greens will split their vote and we will be the challengers. We’ll give it our all.’
Asked about the possibility of a leadership challenge, the Prime Minister told Channel 4 News last night: ‘My message to my entire party and across Europe and around the world is that any minute we spend talking about anything other than the cost of living and stability is a minute wasted.’
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said Mr Burnham’s local popularity presented a dilemma for Sir Keir, adding: ‘If Andy Burnham does not run, especially if he is stopped by Labor and Labor loses, Keir Starmer will take the blame.
‘If Burnham fights the by-election, she will put her alleged popularity and ability to turn Labour’s fortunes around to the test. If he loses that will be the end, but if he wins it could raise questions for the Prime Minister.’
There were rumors that Mancunian Green Party leader Zack Polanski might throw his hat in the ring to win a seat in Westminster. Conservative sources also confirmed that they will be candidates.
Labor rules mean Mr Burnham must resign as mayor to contest the seat, triggering a race the party could lose against Reform.
The board that can block Burnham
by Sam Merriman
To the general public, Labour’s governing body appears to be a secretive, bureaucratic institution with little influence on their lives.
But Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) will now have to make a decision that could have serious consequences for the next General Election and Sir Keir Starmer’s political future.
Andy Burnham must first pass the 44-strong body before he can take part in the by-election triggered by Andrew Gwynne’s withdrawal and then potentially run for party leadership.
Most of the ones on it are not household names. But one former member was Sir Tony Robinson, known as TV’s Baldrick, who had a ‘cunning plan’ that Mr Burnham could now surely benefit from.
The current chair of the NEC is Home Affairs Minister Shabana Mahmood, who is loyal to the Prime Minister but is said to have her own leadership ambitions.
Mr Burnham was MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017. He has held the leadership seat twice and has made little secret of his desire to succeed Sir Keir.
There were rumors that Mancunian Green Party leader Zack Polanski could enter the race for the Greater Manchester seat
Other MPs on the body include the Attorney General and Chancellor’s sister Ellie Reeves, as well as centrist MPs Luke Akehurst and Gurinder Singh Josan.
Also on the panel is Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds. He was loyal to Sir Keir, but his position is not that simple; he is a Greater Manchester MP, said to be a reluctant Whip, and his wife was recently ousted from a powerful role in Downing Street.
Then there’s Sir Keir’s bete noire, Lucy Powell; An important ally of Mr. Burnham; He was sacked from his Cabinet post by the Prime Minister last year and subsequently served successfully as deputy leader of the Labor Party.
Apart from the leading members, the rest of the NEC consists of union representatives, Constituency and Parliamentary Labor Party members and local councillors.
The unions, which have 13 representatives on the ruling body, will be important and, given the grumblings from within about Sir Keir, they could offer Mr Burnham a way forward if he can persuade them to back him.
Ultimately, the decision on whether to block the Mayor of Manchester is likely down to the Prime Minister and his closest advisers.
Any apparent attempt to thwart Mr Burnham would carry its own risks and would likely lead to a damaging public debate that could further damage the Prime Minister.
