Starmer risks a major war within 10 years without one change, warns AI | UK | News
An artificial intelligence system that bills itself as the most accurate forecaster in the world has put the UK’s chance of fighting a major war in the next decade at one in four and says only a dramatic increase in defense spending could reduce that risk.
Cassi AI, whose founder claims to produce predictions “just outside the best that humanity can make under uncertainty”, put the odds of the UK being involved in a major conflict at one in five before the Iran war broke out on 28 February. That figure has since increased to 24 percent.
Modeling of the system suggests that a single policy decision could completely change the picture. If Britain commits to spending 3 per cent of GDP on defense on a five-year average and achieves this target by 2036, the likelihood of conflict will drop to just 5 per cent, or one in twenty.
What qualifies as a major conflict?
For Cassi’s purposes, a major conflict is one in which British deaths reach 500, or 250 in a battle that claimed the lives of 10,000 combatants in total. No conflict involving the UK since the Korean War has crossed this threshold.
insurance question
Dr. RAF intelligence officer, who continued to find Cassi for 18 years. Keith Dear put it plainly, according to the Times: “If you had told me there was a one in four chance of my house burning down, I would have had insurance.
“The question this poses to politicians is: Is it worth spending 3 percent on defense to save those lives and the obvious crippling costs of war?”
Dear, the former No.10 foreign policy adviser, said the system outperformed all major AI rivals in terms of accuracy and ranked above xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic and Google in its prediction rankings.
Rather than relying on a single model, Cassi operates like an intelligence cell: collecting data from multiple sources, running it through separate analytical channels, and weighing the output of competing AI systems before reaching a conclusion.
Where the expenses are
The UK currently spends around 2.4 percent of GDP on defence. Starmer has promised to raise the rate to 2.5 per cent by April next year, and a rate of 3 per cent will be set in the next parliament.
Cassi’s modeling gives only a one in four chance of reaching the 3 percent target by 2036. The prediction concludes that if you miss this window the risk reduction will be significantly smaller.
The AI also examined how the course of the Ukraine war could shape Britain’s exposure to conflict. Early termination (before 2027) would increase the UK’s probability of conflict by 5 per cent. A protracted war that lasts until 2029 will increase this rate by 15 percent.
But there is a narrow road. Cassi’s modeling suggests the UK’s conflict risk may remain broadly unchanged if the Ukraine war ends between 1 January 2027 and 31 December 2028.
