The ‘King of the North’ seeks a path to becoming Britain’s next leader in a special election

Nearly 75,000 voters in a district in north-west England are about to make a crucial decision. They will vote in a contest that could choose the UK’s next prime minister or throw Britain’s heated politics into further turmoil. Probably both.

Some are not so keen.

“I think it’s all a waste of time,” Shirley Prior said of the candidate selection in Makerfield, where the June 18 special election attracted the attention of journalists around the world. This level of interest is almost unheard of in a by-election in which one of the 650 seats in the House of Commons will be filled.

If Andy Burnham of the centre-left Labor Party wins, there is a strong chance he will replace embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer as leader of both the party and the country. He is opposed by the far-right Reform UK party, which hopes to prove that this long-time Labor stronghold is fertile ground for its anti-immigration message, with potentially seismic consequences for British democracy.

This area has elected Labor MPs for 120 years, but Burnham does not approve of this. The reform, led by veteran anti-immigration politician Nigel Farage, won 24 of the 25 council seats up for grabs in local elections in this region last month.

“I always voted Labor because my dad, my grandfather and everyone else back then voted Labour,” Prior said. “I haven’t done this in many years.”

Immigration is the most important problem

The elections are being held at a time when tensions over immigration are increasing. This week’s stabbing in Belfast, in which a Sudanese man was charged with attempted murder, triggered violent protests in Northern Ireland, where cars and houses were set on fire.

In the constituency’s main town of Ashton-in-Makerfield, 200 miles (320 kilometers) northwest of London, some voters are repeating claims that Reformation newcomers are straining housing and public services.

“Immigration is very high, all services are being put under pressure and Labor continues to welcome more and more people into the country and it’s the taxpayers who have to pay for it,” said retiree Phil Arrowsmith.

Annual net migration to the UK rose to more than 900,000 in 2023 under the previous Conservative government, falling to 171,000 last year.

This decline has done little to boost the Labor government, which has floundered since winning the election in July 2024.

Starmer has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair aging public services and ease living costs, and has been hobbled by repeated missteps, including his decision to appoint Jeffrey Epstein’s scandal-tainted friend Peter Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to Washington.

The dismal performance in last month’s local elections led to clamor from Labor MPs for Starmer to resign. He refused, but Cabinet minister Wes Streeting resigned so he could take part in an imminent leadership contest.

Burnham, the popular mayor of Greater Manchester, also has leadership ambitions but needs a seat in Parliament if he wants to challenge Starmer. An opening emerged when Josh Simons, the Labor MP for Makerfield, resigned to trigger a special election.

Burnham said he understood voters were “fed up” and described the big Reform vote in the UK as “a real cry for change” that Labor must heed.

‘King of the North’ looks to power in London

The Makerfield constituency is a capsule of British history, a collection of former coal mining communities transformed into suburban suburbs. The slag heaps and slum dwellings in the area described by George Orwell in his 1937 book “The Road to Wigan Pier” have been replaced by suburbs of tidy modern houses interspersed with farmers’ fields amidst Victorian workers’ cottages.

Although it is far from the city centre, it is part of Greater Manchester and Burnham receives honks and thumbs up from passing motorists as he walks down the street in his smartly casual uniform of a navy blue shirt and jacket and dark jeans.

The 56-year-old man has been the mayor of the region with a population of 3 million since 2017; This is a period when the center of Manchester is booming and skyscrapers are springing up in post-industrial areas. Many residents praise him for supporting the city and bringing a piecemeal public transportation system under municipal control as the Bee Network.

For the previous fifteen years he was an MP in Parliament and a minister in Labor governments. He doesn’t emphasize this part of his CV, preferring his outsider status that has earned him the nickname King of the North.

“What we’re building in Greater Manchester needs to go national,” Burnham told reporters at a campaign event this week. “I know what it means to turn things around.”

Many predict a close rivalry

The campaign is a strange mix of local and international. Some voters see immigration as a top concern. Others talk about high street shops, potholes and petty crime.

Burnham’s main rival is Reform UK candidate Rob Kenyon, a 41-year-old plumber and local councillor who came second to Labor in the 2024 national election. Although his opponents criticize him for his rude, sexist and anti-vaccine comments on social media, he says he is an unpolished, ordinary guy.

Reform voters are also a target of Restore, a more strident anti-immigration party.

Retired teacher and Labor supporter Michael Poultney thinks the unpopularity of Starmer’s government means Burnham faces a tough test.

“If it wasn’t for his personal vote, I think we would have struggled,” he said. “Keir Starmer has done very well on the international stage, but the government has not yet taken control of the economy.”

Burnham insists he is running for the people of Makerfield, not his own ambition, and does not take victory for granted.

“I’m not making any assumptions after June 18,” Burnham said.

But he stressed that “this is an elective change.”

“I will fight as hard as I can for the changes I want to see in politics,” he said.