Trump’s net approval rating on economy and overall falls to lowest of his two terms, CNBC survey shows
President Donald Trump’s overall and economic approval ratings took a dip in the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey in what appears to be a direct reflection of widespread dissatisfaction with the war with Iran, higher gasoline prices and negative views of the economy.
Survey of 1,000 people nationwide It found that 40% approve of the president’s job performance, a 5-point drop from last quarter, while 58% disapprove, a 6-point increase. His net approval fell 10 points to -18; This is the lowest level ever measured during the president’s two terms. The poll, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%, marked the sharpest decline in the president’s net approval since Americans became dissatisfied with his handling of the pandemic in 2020.
Net support from Democrats and independents also reached record lows, but the decline from Republicans was notable. It fell 17 points to its lowest level since 2017; The disapproval rate increased by 9 points, while the approval rate decreased by 8 points to 82%. While MAGA voters remained loyal to the president at a rate of 96 percent, support from non-MAGA Republicans dropped 19 points to 60 percent.
Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the poll’s Republican pollster, said the numbers weren’t particularly troubling to him. In the midst of the war, high inflation and rising gas prices, a 5-point drop in approval wasn’t that big of a move, he said.
Roberts said of the Republican Party’s MAGA contingent: “A 5-point decline is not the path you want to go, but … it has 60% of the Republican Party very, very excited and very much on their side.” “This is a very worrying time, there are a lot of big things happening but the change in numbers doesn’t seem to be as big in (Trump’s) core ratings.”
Roberts called the Iran war an “administration-defining” event for which the president will be forever remembered.
Economic downgrades
On the economy, Trump’s approval fell sharply, with 39%/60% approval/disapproval, compared to 43% to 54% in the previous quarter. The -21 net margin represents a 10-point drop to the lowest net approval on the economy for any CNBC poll during Trump’s term. By comparison, the CNBC poll had President Joe Biden lower at -22 by the end of 2024.
Trump has seen a significant deterioration in his economic approval from key constituencies. Support from independents and Latinos fell by 9 points each, while support from white Americans without a college degree fell by 7 points. Although Republicans’ support for the economy decreased by 8 points, it remained at a high level of 77%.
The bulk of that decline occurred among non-Maga Republicans, whose support fell to 55% from 69% in the previous quarter. MAGA support fell just 3 points to 92%. So while some high-profile MAGA supporters have disagreements with the president over the Iran war, the poll shows Trump still has strong support from his core electorate on the economy.
The most concerning potential development in the midterm elections for the president and Republicans is the sharp decline in both economic and overall presidential approval in GOP-controlled congressional districts. Overall approval in these regions fell by 11 points to 43%.
Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Research, the poll’s Democratic pollster, said he believes it will be difficult for the president’s numbers to rebound in time to help Republicans in the midterms.
“It’s hard to imagine a set of policies that could be proposed and implemented between now and Election Day that would have such a material impact on the American people that they would say, ‘Actually, this guy is doing pretty well on the economy,'” Campbell said.
Americans prefer Democrats to control Congress by a 4-point margin, unchanged from the previous poll, and attitudes toward the Democratic Party remain negative, with 26% expressing a positive opinion while 52% reporting an unfavorable opinion. This percentage is heavily influenced by the negative views Democrats have about their own party after losing the last election. While Democrats will likely vote Democratic, this gives pause to the notion that the president’s woes will automatically translate into overwhelming Democratic gains.
“Democrats cannot assume that the worse Trump is, the better they will be, or that they can pin it all on Trump and the Republican Congress,” Campbell said.
Republicans are doing slightly better in the public’s eyes; While 35% have a positive view, 52% have a negative view, and 76% of Republicans approve of their party. The current poll marks the fourth consecutive poll in which Republicans have a better public image than Democrats.
Iranian war outlook
When it comes to the Iran war, Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of military action by a wide margin. 48% of Americans say they feel “less safe” because of the war with Iran, while 30% say they feel safer. The public is divided along party lines on this question; 78% of Democrats feel less safe, while 60% of Republicans feel safer. But independents are closer to Democrats; 58 percent say they feel less safe. Just over 1 in 5 Americans had no opinion or said it had no impact; This leaves the potential for more or less support depending on the outcome of the battle.
At this point, when asked about the financial cost, the increase in gasoline prices, regime change in Iran and the death toll, the majority of Americans say war with Iran is not worth it. For example, 64% of the public said the Iran war was not worth it when taking into account the overall financial cost to the country or the increase in gasoline prices.
While significant segments of the constituency that elects the president in 2024, including Latinos, young people and independents, view the Iran war extremely negatively, non-college white voters remain divided. But by a margin of 53 percent to 44 percent, Americans say the war is worth disrupting Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
A majority of Americans say they are cutting back on non-essential spending and plan to travel less due to rising gas prices. Overall, nearly 80% have taken some action due to the shortage at the pump, including using their credit cards more and even spending less on essentials.
Majorities also disapprove of Trump’s stance on inflation and tariffs; both figures are worsening compared to the previous survey. While efforts to deport illegal immigrants have been moderately viewed negatively, securing the southern border is supported by a majority of 51% to 46%, the only issue among those questioned that received positive approval.
Correction: CNBC poll had President Joe Biden lower at -22 at the end of 2024. An earlier version incorrectly defined the time period.
